Monday, January 15, 2007
Escape from Iraq Through Iran
Many in Washington believe that the alternatives to a disastrous retreat from Iraq are few. One of the alternatives that some feel administration people are entertaining is a widening of the war to Iran. American statements in regard to Iran have been threatening since the "Axis of Evil" speech. Iran was never given credit for the help that they gave us in defeating the Taliban. Since the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are fiercely anti-Shi'a, one would think Tehran would have been a natural ally. Instead, the Iranians have been reviled for suspected attempts to develop a nuclear weapon, for their support of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and for supposedly sending weapons into Iraq.
Some month ago Seymour Hersh reported that American agents were being sent into Iran to help dissident movements in Iranian Baluchistan and Iranian Kurdistan. Scott Ritter, the former weapon's inspector and Hersh are all over the internet with statements about these agents, along with Israeli agents. Ritter has predicted war with Iran in the near future. Recently, we have announced that we are sending additional ships to protect the Persian Gulf against Iran. One of the greatest downsides to a war with Iran is that the Iranians could disrupt the movement of oil in the Gulf. Presumably the ships and their associated planes could reduce this danger. On two occasions recently we have arrested Iranians in Iraq. The latest event in Erbil in Kurdistan infuriated both the central Iraq government and the Kurdish regional government. We claim they are involved in bringing in weapons or explosives for the Shiite militias. Perhaps they are. In any event, we have signaled that we will be more active in the future in preventing such intrusions. We have repeatedly claimed that the Iranians are breaking the law in moving ahead with a nuclear enrichment program. The Iranians claim it is all for peaceful purposes, but even if not, after essentially approving the Indian, Pakistani, and Israel programs, we have a weak basis from which to criticize.
In any event, can one imagine a better way for the Bush people to reverse the Iraq disaster? After this new front heats up a bit, it can plausibly be argued that our problems in Iraq are due to Iranian intervention, that we have actually been fighting Iran all along without realizing it. I don't see a great deal of ground action, but there could be a lot of dead Iranians if we use our air power to "teach them a lesson". A new way to make friends in the region.
Some month ago Seymour Hersh reported that American agents were being sent into Iran to help dissident movements in Iranian Baluchistan and Iranian Kurdistan. Scott Ritter, the former weapon's inspector and Hersh are all over the internet with statements about these agents, along with Israeli agents. Ritter has predicted war with Iran in the near future. Recently, we have announced that we are sending additional ships to protect the Persian Gulf against Iran. One of the greatest downsides to a war with Iran is that the Iranians could disrupt the movement of oil in the Gulf. Presumably the ships and their associated planes could reduce this danger. On two occasions recently we have arrested Iranians in Iraq. The latest event in Erbil in Kurdistan infuriated both the central Iraq government and the Kurdish regional government. We claim they are involved in bringing in weapons or explosives for the Shiite militias. Perhaps they are. In any event, we have signaled that we will be more active in the future in preventing such intrusions. We have repeatedly claimed that the Iranians are breaking the law in moving ahead with a nuclear enrichment program. The Iranians claim it is all for peaceful purposes, but even if not, after essentially approving the Indian, Pakistani, and Israel programs, we have a weak basis from which to criticize.
In any event, can one imagine a better way for the Bush people to reverse the Iraq disaster? After this new front heats up a bit, it can plausibly be argued that our problems in Iraq are due to Iranian intervention, that we have actually been fighting Iran all along without realizing it. I don't see a great deal of ground action, but there could be a lot of dead Iranians if we use our air power to "teach them a lesson". A new way to make friends in the region.
Ahmad Chalabi, Iran, and War in Iraq
I have recently realized that the war in Iraq may have been carefully nursed into flame by the Iranian government as a means of destroying their old nemesis (Hussein) and weakening their neighbor to the west, so that it could never aspire to much more than satellite status
Ahmad Chalabi might be singled out as the person most responsible for this outcome. As the reader may know, Chalabi is a wealthy Iraqi who has spent nearly all of his life in exile. He is well educated, publishing several papers in mathematics. He has had numerous business dealings, some of which were questionable (for example, he had to flee Jordan because of apparent bank fraud). In any event, whatever his setbacks, he seems to always bounce back. He has a lovely home in London and has recently purchased a home overlooking Tehran. He also has an extensive family compound in Baghdad. For the last years of the Hussein's rule, he was known as a principal leader of Iraqi opposition, serving as the head of the Iraqi National Congress. He organized a resistance movement among the Kurds in the mid 1990s, fleeing after they were defeated. He then came to Washington where he became the idol of the neocons, the man who convinced them and many others that we should attack Iraq, and that the people were ready to transform their country into a democracy. His movement was well supported by the Americans.
After our victory, his Pentagon supporters managed to work him into top positions in the Iraqi government . He was appointed a member of the Interim Governing Council. But in 2004 his compound was surrounded by Iraqi forces. He was charged with grand theft and counterfeiting, and his nephew with murder. At about this time, the United States also accused him of passing U.S. government secrets to the Iranians. The Americans cut off his subsidy. But with the assistance of his friends, none of these charges were sustained. He had become one of Iraq's leading Shiite politicians, and was appointed Deputy Prime Minister in April, 2005. Once again in the good graces of the United States, in November, 2005 he visited Washington for high level meetings with American officials and Congress. He followed this up with a trip to Tehran where he met with Ahmadinejad and other top Iranians. In spite of this international comeback, with Iraqi voters he seems to have lost any influence. He is now out of government
Ahmad Chalabi might be singled out as the person most responsible for this outcome. As the reader may know, Chalabi is a wealthy Iraqi who has spent nearly all of his life in exile. He is well educated, publishing several papers in mathematics. He has had numerous business dealings, some of which were questionable (for example, he had to flee Jordan because of apparent bank fraud). In any event, whatever his setbacks, he seems to always bounce back. He has a lovely home in London and has recently purchased a home overlooking Tehran. He also has an extensive family compound in Baghdad. For the last years of the Hussein's rule, he was known as a principal leader of Iraqi opposition, serving as the head of the Iraqi National Congress. He organized a resistance movement among the Kurds in the mid 1990s, fleeing after they were defeated. He then came to Washington where he became the idol of the neocons, the man who convinced them and many others that we should attack Iraq, and that the people were ready to transform their country into a democracy. His movement was well supported by the Americans.
After our victory, his Pentagon supporters managed to work him into top positions in the Iraqi government . He was appointed a member of the Interim Governing Council. But in 2004 his compound was surrounded by Iraqi forces. He was charged with grand theft and counterfeiting, and his nephew with murder. At about this time, the United States also accused him of passing U.S. government secrets to the Iranians. The Americans cut off his subsidy. But with the assistance of his friends, none of these charges were sustained. He had become one of Iraq's leading Shiite politicians, and was appointed Deputy Prime Minister in April, 2005. Once again in the good graces of the United States, in November, 2005 he visited Washington for high level meetings with American officials and Congress. He followed this up with a trip to Tehran where he met with Ahmadinejad and other top Iranians. In spite of this international comeback, with Iraqi voters he seems to have lost any influence. He is now out of government
Juan Cole and the Middle East
The reader of this blog can probably be as well informed as any about Iraq and its situation if he goes to Juan Cole's blog: http://www.juancole.com . The subtitle is "Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion". In spite of its broad range, in recent years the emphasis has been on the Iraq war. Cole is a history professor at Michigan who has written several books, one notable one of the history of the Shiites in Iraq. He seems to have many contacts within Iraq and in the Iraq-aware community throughout the world. His approach to the war and the Middle East has been that of a liberal professor, but a much better informed and thoughtful person of this breed than most.
But Cole is also much more than an ordinary professor. He is an authority on the Bahais (and may be a Bahai, I'm not sure). He has written widely on Bahais, Sufis, and other spiritual movements. His web site also has quite a bit on the Unitarian-Universalist movement.
But for our purposes, the most exciting initiative that he is now involved with is something called the Global Americana Institute of which he is president. He has set it up to fill what he feels is a serious vacuum: the lack of available translations of American authors into Arabic. He is thinking particularly of Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Martin Luther King, perhaps a history of Jews in America. He has toured widely in the Arab world and visits bookstores wherever he can. It is amazing how little literature he finds. He finds a fair number of American authors in English or French. But for those who only know Arabic, there is almost nothing. He thinks it would help greatly if the Arab public had greater access to our writings and one can only agree. (He hopes to extend the effort, probably to Persian on the one side and to Hebrew on the other.)
It is interesting that many of the programs that we thought were helping with this problem a generation or so ago have either disappeared or been greatly scaled back. There is apparently no longer a Franklin Book Program. There is a small U.S. Government translation program, but very few of its works are available to the general public. The United States Information Agency has been reduced in size and folded into the State Department. Their once well-known reading rooms have largely disappeared. The emphasis of Cole's foudation will be on producing inexpensive paperbacks since connection to the internet is still rare and libraries are few and weak. American studies programs are almost entirely lacking in the area, and where they exist tend to be connected with the study of English. Some recent discussion of this initiative can be found at http://www.juancole.com/2006/04/americana-in-arabic-challenge-to.html.
But Cole is also much more than an ordinary professor. He is an authority on the Bahais (and may be a Bahai, I'm not sure). He has written widely on Bahais, Sufis, and other spiritual movements. His web site also has quite a bit on the Unitarian-Universalist movement.
But for our purposes, the most exciting initiative that he is now involved with is something called the Global Americana Institute of which he is president. He has set it up to fill what he feels is a serious vacuum: the lack of available translations of American authors into Arabic. He is thinking particularly of Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Martin Luther King, perhaps a history of Jews in America. He has toured widely in the Arab world and visits bookstores wherever he can. It is amazing how little literature he finds. He finds a fair number of American authors in English or French. But for those who only know Arabic, there is almost nothing. He thinks it would help greatly if the Arab public had greater access to our writings and one can only agree. (He hopes to extend the effort, probably to Persian on the one side and to Hebrew on the other.)
It is interesting that many of the programs that we thought were helping with this problem a generation or so ago have either disappeared or been greatly scaled back. There is apparently no longer a Franklin Book Program. There is a small U.S. Government translation program, but very few of its works are available to the general public. The United States Information Agency has been reduced in size and folded into the State Department. Their once well-known reading rooms have largely disappeared. The emphasis of Cole's foudation will be on producing inexpensive paperbacks since connection to the internet is still rare and libraries are few and weak. American studies programs are almost entirely lacking in the area, and where they exist tend to be connected with the study of English. Some recent discussion of this initiative can be found at http://www.juancole.com/2006/04/americana-in-arabic-challenge-to.html.
