Friday, November 05, 2004
Iraq’s Elections: Continued Progress in the Midst of Chaos
It is hard to believe that the elections are actually going to occur — and that they could be a reasonable success in spite of everything. Today’s paper reports on the decision of Iraq’s interim government, in spite of the objections of the Americans and the United Nations, to allow voting by Iraqis living outside the country. Because there is such a large Diaspora, this has been insisted on by the leading Shiite parties as well as Ayatollah Sistani himself. The Kurds also pushed for it. So even though they do not yet have a budget for what could be an expensive operation, it is apparently going to happen. The Afghans had expatriate voting in their last election, as did East Timor under the supervision of the UN. Certainly the Americans have it. So the Iraqis must feel they have a right. The paper says expatriate voting will more than ever infuriate the Sunni Arabs, because they have a relatively small number of expatriates. I wonder if this is really true. They were the wealthiest group prior to the invasion and the better off generally find their way out of troubled countries more easily than the poor. It should be encouraging to the Americans to note that the expatriates tend to be more secular than the people in the country. Although registration through the food distribution system got off to a shaky start, the process seems now to be up and running, at least in some areas.
Meanwhile Juan Cole reports that although the Association of Muslim Scholars, a group closely allied to the insurgency, has urged its followers to boycott the election, the Iraqi Islamic Party has been handing out pamphlets at Sunni Arab mosques pointing out the obvious, that is, if they do not vote they will end up essentially powerless in a new state. Several small Sunni parties are joining together in a coalition to fight the elections. Allawi’s Iraqi National Accord, a secular party essentially (since Allawi is a Shi’a) may also join with them. There are reports that the two main Kurdish parties will also join to make a coalition that could garner 35% of the vote. All these moves indicate a real feeling among many Iraqis that even though no one can stop the killing, the election can be held and that it can have a meaning for them. In the long run, this may be the best chance we all have to pacify the country. It is hard for outsiders listening to the daily blood letting to believe in all this, but there it is. Whether the planned attack on Falluja could help or harm progress toward elections remains unclear.
Meanwhile Juan Cole reports that although the Association of Muslim Scholars, a group closely allied to the insurgency, has urged its followers to boycott the election, the Iraqi Islamic Party has been handing out pamphlets at Sunni Arab mosques pointing out the obvious, that is, if they do not vote they will end up essentially powerless in a new state. Several small Sunni parties are joining together in a coalition to fight the elections. Allawi’s Iraqi National Accord, a secular party essentially (since Allawi is a Shi’a) may also join with them. There are reports that the two main Kurdish parties will also join to make a coalition that could garner 35% of the vote. All these moves indicate a real feeling among many Iraqis that even though no one can stop the killing, the election can be held and that it can have a meaning for them. In the long run, this may be the best chance we all have to pacify the country. It is hard for outsiders listening to the daily blood letting to believe in all this, but there it is. Whether the planned attack on Falluja could help or harm progress toward elections remains unclear.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Outsiders in the Resistance
Today's news brings us an important interview in Lebanon with a Lebanese would-be suicide bomber. He went into Iraq to help the cause. After considering the alternatives he decided there that the best he could do was to be a suicide bomber. The impression one gets is that there is a well-organized, non-Iraqi movement working alongside the Iraqi resistance. However, the latter are in charge. There is also a great deal of money involved. He had to pay $500 to get smuggled into Iraq. He spent nearly all his time with other non-Iraqis in sealed rooms, one in Baghdad and one in Falluja. The Iraqis told them that they would have to pay $200 for a military kit (with grenades, a machine gun, grenade launcher etc.). They also had to pay for their food. The owner of the house in Falluja eventually said that they were attracting notice and might be bombed by the Americans. He suggested that they would do better to donate their money, go home, and raise more money there.
What one gathers from this is that the Iraqis are not really that welcoming of outsiders. They would prefer to keep the fight to themselves. It would also seem that in spite of the sense that much of the urban landscape in these cities is controlled by the insurgency, people such as our informant were almost always in hiding. When they went out it was in disguise. So lack of security is as much a problem for their side as ours, even in Falluja. This in itself would seem encouraging. The fact there is a worldwide propaganda movement for recruitment and donations is not, however, so reassuring. The fact that there is a larger supply of hopeful suicide bombers than is needed is also less reassuring.
What one gathers from this is that the Iraqis are not really that welcoming of outsiders. They would prefer to keep the fight to themselves. It would also seem that in spite of the sense that much of the urban landscape in these cities is controlled by the insurgency, people such as our informant were almost always in hiding. When they went out it was in disguise. So lack of security is as much a problem for their side as ours, even in Falluja. This in itself would seem encouraging. The fact there is a worldwide propaganda movement for recruitment and donations is not, however, so reassuring. The fact that there is a larger supply of hopeful suicide bombers than is needed is also less reassuring.
