Iraq and Afghanistan

It would appear that we are coming to a dead end in Iraq. For whatever reason the insurgency drags on. The number of attacks is increasing, although the typical attack is now a suicide bomber in a vehicle, a tactic less commonly used in the past. The explosives used by insurgents are larger and better made than in the past and attacks appear to be more carefully planned and focused. These facts cannot be wished away.

As a result, signs of desperation abound.

First, the American command reports that it is speaking to persons in the insurgency, or at least in the non-al Qaeda branch of the insurgency. Remember, these are people who have been responsible for hundreds of deaths and kidnappings, just to make a point. It is true that they are more likely to discriminate, to emphasize killing Americans, than are the Islamists, who believe that disruption and death, particularly the deaths of Shiites and Kurds need no justification. Yet how exactly will we make peace with them? Will the Kurds and Shiites who have been murdered, go along? Of course, we should have been trying to talk before now, but it will be a thorny road in a country in which revenge for every death is the responsibility of every family.

Second, Rumsfeld now says that putting down the insurgency will take at least ten years. He then adds that this means the Iraqis will have to be the ones who do it. How he chose the "ten or more years" is unclear, but what is clear is that the United States now accepts the fact that it cannot end the insurgency. It follows that we will be leaving long before the insurgency is controlled. This admission cannot help but bolster the arguments of an increasing number in Congress that we should be making plans to leave now and setting dates.

Third, we are getting more and more reports from officers and men in the field that no matter how effective their repeated offensives might be, they have nowhere near the number of troops needed to control the areas they "clear". They are quite aware that when they leave, the insurgents will come back in. This, in turn, must make it hard for the Iraqis caught in the middle (and, as in most insurgencies, this means the vast mass of the people) to help the Americans. Some do help in spite of this, but their risks are great. Increasing numbers in such situations are trying to get their families out of the country.

Of course, in some parts of the country, such as Basra and the solidly Shiite or Kurdish areas, there has been progress, life is returning to something like normal. Regular plane service from Basra to many locales, including Baghdad, has been initiated. One can only expect that the contrast between areas of the country will continue to grow.