Sunday, June 05, 2005
Update on Iraq Situation
The June 3 NYT offered the most recent version of the series of remarkable updates on the situation in Iraq that have bee offered by two researchers at the Brookings Institution. In a concise format they report information from a wide variety of sources. These include military and economic statistics, as well as polling results. The data is reported in the form of a time series (in this case May 2003, June 2004, and May 2005).
There are some curious anomalies in the latest compilation. On the one hand, there has been a considerable increase in the rate at which American and Iraqi security forces and Iraqi civilians are being killed. The average number of insurgent attacks per day has increased. On the other hand fuel supplies available to the people have increased, while the number of telephone users and internet subscribers has increased dramatically. (Significantly, there were only 833,000 telephone users before the war, while there are 3,300,000 today.) The percentage of Iraqis supporting the government has risen to 75%. The number of well-equipped Iraqi security forces has increased rapidly to 50,000 (many other estimates exist, but this estimate is probably as good as any). The number of trained judges has also risen rapidly. The percentage of Sunni Arabs believing the country is headed in the right direction has risen, although not dramatically. At the same time, actual fuel production has fallen slightly, and electricity production has fallen more rapidly. The rising confidence of the people in the face of what objectively is a far from encouraging situation is remarkable.
One can only conclude that the situation is encouraging but quite fragile. People have evidently concluded that the political process offers the only hope for reestablishing and improving their way of life. They like the possibilities that are opening up under the new order. Yet I would suggest that if the confidence of the people is not sustained by progress in key economic areas and in security for the average person, there could be a rapid collapse in support for the system, as well as for American and Iraqi security forces.
There are some curious anomalies in the latest compilation. On the one hand, there has been a considerable increase in the rate at which American and Iraqi security forces and Iraqi civilians are being killed. The average number of insurgent attacks per day has increased. On the other hand fuel supplies available to the people have increased, while the number of telephone users and internet subscribers has increased dramatically. (Significantly, there were only 833,000 telephone users before the war, while there are 3,300,000 today.) The percentage of Iraqis supporting the government has risen to 75%. The number of well-equipped Iraqi security forces has increased rapidly to 50,000 (many other estimates exist, but this estimate is probably as good as any). The number of trained judges has also risen rapidly. The percentage of Sunni Arabs believing the country is headed in the right direction has risen, although not dramatically. At the same time, actual fuel production has fallen slightly, and electricity production has fallen more rapidly. The rising confidence of the people in the face of what objectively is a far from encouraging situation is remarkable.
One can only conclude that the situation is encouraging but quite fragile. People have evidently concluded that the political process offers the only hope for reestablishing and improving their way of life. They like the possibilities that are opening up under the new order. Yet I would suggest that if the confidence of the people is not sustained by progress in key economic areas and in security for the average person, there could be a rapid collapse in support for the system, as well as for American and Iraqi security forces.
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