Iraq and Afghanistan

Once again Robert Pape, a leading authority on "suicide terrorism" contributes an Op-Ed to the NY Times. His presentation of data is the same as in his previous contribution (discussed some months back in this blog). The essential point is that religion has not been the major reason for suicidal terrorism. Whether it be the Muslims in Palestine or the Hindus in Sri Lanka, there seems little connection between religiosity and suicide. (Apparently, you do not need a vision of all those virgins in heaven.) The key issue for most suicide bombers is the fact that their group is not as self-governing within the system they find themselves in as they would like. One can expand on his point by pointing out that when commentators use the word "religion" in such discussions what is referred to is not some set of sacrosanct beliefs but rather a difference in group affiliations. The Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland have not fought one another because they hold different views of the sacredness of the Virgin Mary or of the way to take communion. They are fighting for control because they belong to different social groups. One group says to the other "We are catholics and you are protestants", and vice-versa.

Pape's evidence suggests that democracies or near democracies seem especially prone to developing groups with such suicidal tendencies. This is apparently because the promise of democracy is that all people will have an equal say in how their lives are run. When this promise remains permanently unfilled or is seen to be impossible with the balance of power (or votes) that a people faces, they turn to terrorism and eventually suicidal terrorism.

Pape goes astray, however, when he interprets the situation in Iraq to be primarily an expression of a desire to rid the country of foreigners, especially Americans. Give this interpretation, his solution for terrorism in Iraq then becomes taking the American forces out. This might have worked at some point, but the insurgency and the suicide bombing is now directed mainly against the Shi'a, and one can assume that it will be turned against the Iranians if they continue to increase their influence. I would judge that a better analogy for Iraq is the struggle of radical Tamils against the government of Sri Lanka. They find themselves a "permanent minority". As such, democracy does nothing for them unless the borders of the country are drawn so that they can live in a country of their own. It is true that the Tamils fought effectively against the Indians when they came to the aid of the Sri Lanka government. They did blow up the prime minister of India in a famous suicide event. But this was essentially a side show. Their real enemy was and remains the Sinhalese majority on their island.