Iraq and Afghanistan

The continued toll in the Iraq war has occasioned some rethinking of what we are up against. The number of attacks and their sophistication continues to increase, and any number of optimistic statements that this must be their last hurrah ring increasingly hollow (even though they may be true --remember the Tet offensive). While much is still unclear, the consensus is that the old Baath-Sunni leadership generally calls the shots and arranges the finances. The preferred tactic these days is the use of suicide bombers driving vehicles. The insurgency is said to have a stockpile of such vehicles, some already loaded. In addition, they have large stockpiles of munitions from which more can be made. The people carrying the weapons appear mostly to be foreigners recruited for the war against the crusaders. Some, however, may be Iraqis who are compelled to play this role (by, for example, threats to family members that are in the hands of the insurgency).

One result of this latest understanding is a major offensive against insurgent areas near to the Syrian border. This area near Qaim has been the known source of infiltration for a long time. I was surprised to see that the Coalition had not secured the area long ago. This is another one of the costs of simply not having enough troops. We and our Iraqi allies need to be able to go into such critical areas in force and stay there. Campaigns, such as that in Falluja, are often not the answer. (However, the situation in Falluja in spite of everything is actually much improved over the situation when we went in.)

It is a war of Sunnis against everyone else. Yet it is more complex than that. Many in the Sunni leadership are actually secular, as are Baath leaders in general. Interviews suggest that the fears of the Sunnis includes some mixture of having to live in a theocracy and losing their leading role in Iraq to the Shiites. One interview suggests that the Baath-Sunnis also see the struggle as developing into one between Iraq and Iran. They even suggest that many of the bombers are set up by the Iranians as a way to cause trouble. And they thoroughly believe that the new Prime Minister is simply a tool of Iran. One does not have to believe any of this to understand the rather dark implications of such beliefs. My own experience in the area suggests that even more than most peoples, the Muslims believe what they want to believe: talking them out of it is often impossible.