Iraq and Afghanistan

The American administration and its generals in Iraq seem more worried than they have been for a long time, and they have good reason to be. Instead of decreasing in number, suicide car bombings have been increasing in the last two months, exacting a terrifying toll. American military commanders have publicly begun to admit that their former optimistic assumptions about how fast the Iraqis were developing their security services and military forces have been wide of the mark. The sense of gloom is heightened by the killing of Sunni Arab clerics and the subsequent accusation that the leading Shiite political organization was behind the killings. Whether true or not, this cannot help. The Sunni Arabs appear to be further alienated by the strong welcome extended to the Iranian foreign minister, a visit that was ended by a statement by the new Iraqi, and Shi'a, Prime Minister that Iraq was responsible for the war of Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. Of course, he said Saddam was the culprit, but the Sunni Arabs interpret this as another slam at them.

The result is that the Americans have begun to talk of remaining in the country indefinitely whether they want to or not. This will give more ammunition to Moqtada al-Sadr, who believes inflaming this issue is good for his Mahdi Army. He has already begin holding new demonstrations against us (and this from within the Shi'a camp). Our open-ended stay will give more credibility to both the Sunni Arabs and the Iranians who already believe in our imperial intentions. (Even if we had such intentions, and some in our government no doubt do, we do not have the money nor the political staying power to bring it off.)

Today, I have no concluding words of wisdom.