Thursday, April 07, 2005
Revisiting Iraq
After a several days gap in postings, we should revisit the situation in Iraq. There has been a series of encouraging news items. The violence appears to be down. Coalition casualties are less than they were, although still substantial. The decline in coalition casualties also means a decline in Iraqi civilian casualties, although those caused by the insurgency remain at a high level. Another way of judging is by the number of incidents reported daily or weekly. These too seem to be down, although the military is worried by the size of some recent attacks, such as that on Abu Ghraib.
One of the most hopeful signs was a sermon by a leading Sunni opponent of the war telling young Sunni Arabs that they should join the new security services so that the community would not have to face so many evil people (read Kurds or Shi'a) in the new army and police forces. One could read this as no more than a plea for more insurgents to infiltrate these services, but no one seemed to read it that way.
On the political front, the parties seem to have finally gotten together so that the political process can move forward. They have selected a Sunni Arab speaker of the national assembly. They have selected a leader of the Kurdistan Alliance to be President, and a Sunni Arab (already in the interim government) and a Shi'a leader to be vice presidents. It is presumed that they will select al-Jaafari, a somewhat conservative Shi'a party leader, as the new Prime Minister.
These results have not gone over well with everyone. In spite of their lack of voting and consequent small representation in the Assembly, the Sunni Arabs seem to have gotten their share so far. The Kurds appear very happy, while others find this disturbing. They see the Kurds getting too much, which apparently means that they have gained some still not revealed assurances about the incorporation of the Kirkuk area and its oil into the Kurdish realm.
The greatest dissatisfaction is being expressed by those Shi'a and Kurds who demand that the interim government be replaced immediately by a government appointed by the new leadership. The reason is simmering hatred of the Allawi regime because it has allowed some of the old Baath members back into government positions. Their demands seem precipitous, coming before a new cabinet is established. More than that they reflect an unwillingness to accommodate the old ruling strata of the country, one of the primary groups behind the insurgency. For all its faults, the Allawi regime did hold out an olive branch to the Sunni Arabs, something these dissenters would evidently lop off.
Iraq is not in the clear yet, but it is getting there. The problems for the next few months are (1) resisting overly ambitious calls for American withdrawal, (2) writing a constitution giving the Kurds rights that they and the rest can live with, (3) finding an acceptable balance of secular/religious interests in the constitution, (4) reducing violence enough for the country's infrastructure to really make a recovery, and (5) holding a referendum on the new constitution (set for October, but it may be delayed), and then (6) electing a new assembly under the new constitution. The world wishes them well.
One of the most hopeful signs was a sermon by a leading Sunni opponent of the war telling young Sunni Arabs that they should join the new security services so that the community would not have to face so many evil people (read Kurds or Shi'a) in the new army and police forces. One could read this as no more than a plea for more insurgents to infiltrate these services, but no one seemed to read it that way.
On the political front, the parties seem to have finally gotten together so that the political process can move forward. They have selected a Sunni Arab speaker of the national assembly. They have selected a leader of the Kurdistan Alliance to be President, and a Sunni Arab (already in the interim government) and a Shi'a leader to be vice presidents. It is presumed that they will select al-Jaafari, a somewhat conservative Shi'a party leader, as the new Prime Minister.
These results have not gone over well with everyone. In spite of their lack of voting and consequent small representation in the Assembly, the Sunni Arabs seem to have gotten their share so far. The Kurds appear very happy, while others find this disturbing. They see the Kurds getting too much, which apparently means that they have gained some still not revealed assurances about the incorporation of the Kirkuk area and its oil into the Kurdish realm.
The greatest dissatisfaction is being expressed by those Shi'a and Kurds who demand that the interim government be replaced immediately by a government appointed by the new leadership. The reason is simmering hatred of the Allawi regime because it has allowed some of the old Baath members back into government positions. Their demands seem precipitous, coming before a new cabinet is established. More than that they reflect an unwillingness to accommodate the old ruling strata of the country, one of the primary groups behind the insurgency. For all its faults, the Allawi regime did hold out an olive branch to the Sunni Arabs, something these dissenters would evidently lop off.
Iraq is not in the clear yet, but it is getting there. The problems for the next few months are (1) resisting overly ambitious calls for American withdrawal, (2) writing a constitution giving the Kurds rights that they and the rest can live with, (3) finding an acceptable balance of secular/religious interests in the constitution, (4) reducing violence enough for the country's infrastructure to really make a recovery, and (5) holding a referendum on the new constitution (set for October, but it may be delayed), and then (6) electing a new assembly under the new constitution. The world wishes them well.
Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
