Iraq and Afghanistan

In last night's Lehrer show three experts agreed that the security situation in Iraq was steadily improving. Violence was down, while what remained was directed primarily at Iraqis, especially those in the security forces or wishing to be in them. The Iraqi security forces, for their part, were slowly but steadily becoming more capable, and thus more able to take over from the Americans. But the discussants also agreed that it would be a long time before the Americans could leave. There was still too much violence for the new state to survive.

Meanwhile, the election produced a balance of forces that has led to an alarming failure of the America-sponsored political process to move forward. The Kurds and the Shi'as cannot agree on critical issues, such as the status of Kirkuk, the Kurd's percentage of oil income, and the secular/religious balance. Complicating the picture are the Sunni Arab leaders who now say they must have at least one vice-president and receive as many critical cabinet posts in any new government as the Kurds (in spite of having elected very few members of parliament because most Sunni Arabs abstained). Given this impasse, the holdover government is apparently barely functioning, and the confidence of the people declines with every passing day. Some of the Shi'a parliamentarians are beginning to have second thoughts against backing the relatively conservative Ibrahim Jafari to be the new Prime Minister. Chalabi may be at work here: Muqtada al-Sadr is said to be one of the doubters (if we believe that these two have continued their strange relationship).

At the same time, Sheikh Harith al-Dari, perhaps the most influential leader of the Sunni Arab community insists that he will continue to support the insurgency until the Americans announce a date by which they will be gone from the country. Setting such a date is something the Shiites (other than al-Sadr) have not pressed for because they do not want to fight a war with the Sunni Arab community. They also do they want the Kurds to separate themselves entirely from the state, an event that could also spark another internal war. Many Americans, including myself, have thought a definite date for departure would be helpful. It might take the wind out of the insurgency. But one cannot be sure; certainly no one in our government talks that way.