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Thursday, March 17, 2005

Strategic Considerations in America's External and Internal Policy 

In today's Times, Thomas Friedman points to the many fallacies in the way in which the present Administration interacts with China. He sees the most pressing problem to be the financial insolvency that we have been led into. For short-term political gain, the American government has allowed our deficit to balloon. In this crisis China, has become the second largest holder of American debt and its share its likely to rise. If it called in the "bill" during a Taiwan or other confrontation, the U.S. government would be hard pressed to do anything other than default. He also points out that China's growing thirst for oil is what drives plans for more Alaskan oil. His sources suggest that eventually China and India will drive prices above 100$ a barrel, putting more and more money into the hands of "some of the world's worst governments". Meanwhile the Administration is cutting the budget of the National Science Foundation, thereby making America less competitive in another dimension. Friedman does not even get into a discussion of the destruction of American manufacturing through the much too generous free trade policy, that hears no evil and sees no evil when it comes to China's wage, benefit, and environmental policies, or China's unwillingness to control the stealing of intellectual property by its citizens.

Clearly, Friedman believes that we must put our house in order and regain scientific leadership. he suggests, among other things, that we place a $1 a gallon tax on gasoline to help close our budget gap and reduce dependence on the oil producing countries.

I would add another thought. We need to improve the balance in the world before our necessarily brief stint at the helm of affairs passes away. Here's one way. The United States has been improving its relations with India, offering, for example, help with a nuclear plant to improve its energy situation. At the same time, India is improving its relations with Iran and Pakistan. This latter has reached the point where there is an active plan to develop a gas pipeline across Pakistan, for the benefit of Iran, Pakistan and India. The United States opposes this out of its general hatred of Iran and its fear of its nuclear program (analogous to the programs that we have effectively now approved for Pakistan and India). The suggestion is that the United States make a conscious decision to strengthen South Asia as a counterweight to China. Pakistan and India are now in a friendly "cricket" phase. Both are deemphasizing their religious differences. We should make every effort to support this process, not heavy handedly, but quietly by our actions. This would be a major way to help support the development in a large part of the world while lessening the danger that China poses to all its neighbors, as well as the United States, in the long run.

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