Iraq and Afghanistan

The new Homelands Security Department under Michael Chertoff seems to be making a good start. The Department has come up with a reasonable list of the most likely terrorist and natural disasters that the country will have to face. Natural disasters are included in the list because they will have to be responded to in ways analogous to responses to terrorist attacks. Fifteen representative "nightmares" are defined, the casualties estimated, and the economic impact predicted. Some nightmares produce only fatalities and wounded, others have primarily, or in one case only, economic impact. The nightmares are: the detonation of a nuclear device in a large city; aerosolized anthrax released in several cities simultaneously; a flu pandemic spreading from China (not terrorist); pneumonic plague released in city facilities; chemical blister agent sprayed over a football stadium during a game; attack on oil refineries releasing massive amounts of toxic gas; release of sarin gas into the ventilation system of a large city; infiltration of an industrial storage facility leading to the blowing up of tank containing chlorine gas (17,500 dead); 7.2 magnitude earthquake on a fault running through a major city; category 5 hurricane hits major city; bombs set off with radioactive caesium at several points in a city; handmade bombs and suicide vehicles are used to attack a sports stadium and emergency room; liquid anthrax is used to contaminate ground beef; terrorists infect farm animals with foot and mouth disease at several locations (huge loss of livestock); cyber attacks on financial institutions over several weeks. One could argue with the list. But at least it is an attempt to consider a variety of dangers and then presumably game the responses of the many local and federal agencies that would be involved. One hopes that as far as the human-caused events are concerned the lists will help with developing counter strategies and tactics. One can only hope that such lists do not put ideas in the heads of potential terrorists whose response might be "Why didn't we think of that?" This is a danger that must be weighed, and we can only hope it was.

This list brings to mind the fact that we have not had a major attack in the country since 9/11. It is a very frightening list, for it would appear that many of the possible terrorist acts, and many others they bring to mind, would just not be that hard to organize and finance. Why, given the size of the Muslim community in this country (Arabs and otherwise), has not al-Qaida been able to recruit in this country the extremely small numbers necessary for terrorism or slip them through our still quite open borders? (This is not a statement that any significant part of the Arab or Muslim community should be thought to be potential traitors. If there are one and a half million Arabs in the country, I assume that not more than one percent, 15,000, would be open to radical Jihadist arguments, with one hundredth of one percent, or 150 persons, actually recruitable.) Yet as far as the pubic knows plans for such attacks in the United States have seldom if ever been discovered since 9/11. On the other hand, many such plots have been discovered in Spain recently, and some in France and elsewhere in Europe (although often these are more targeted, traditional terrorist attacks rather than ones meant to simply cause fatalities and destruction). This suggests that terrorist plots along some of these lines might have been discovered in this country since 9/11 without being publicized. Perhaps Spain is simply more up front about the achievements of their security forces.

Another possibility is that Bin Ladin, in spite of the fearlessness of his rhetoric, is actually not pushing too hard for another spectacular in this country. It may be that our efforts in Afghanistan to catch or kill him are at an "acceptable level" right now. He can live with them in some security. But he knows that after another spectacular we would come after him with little regard for the niceties of respecting borders or avoiding casualties in tribal areas. So, ironically, we might just have an unspoken agreement with al-Qaida that protects both our homeland and theirs. This would be a form of bargaining with terrorists that I had not considered.