Iraq and Afghanistan

A knowledgeable commentator on North Korea points out that none of its neighbors are pushing for change in its execrable political system any time soon. The reasons are many. First, there is no evidence that there are any individuals or institutions that would be able to take over if the current regime fell. There is practically no independent business class. The army is the favored institution, but its leaders have shown no managerial or creative capability. Everyone is so used to simply doing and saying what the government demands that it is doubtful that there could be any short-term adjustment. The most likely immediate result of a government collapse would be a worsening of the availability of food, medicines and other supplies, with no one equipped to receive or distribute what aid came in. For these reasons, and because of the past behavior of the North Koreans, South Korea and China, and to a lesser extent even Japan, can expect millions of destitute North Koreans to flood across the country's borders after a breakdown of the Kim family regime.

Meanwhile, there is some evidence that the North Koreans are at last beginning to get at least a little information on what is happening in the outside world. Yesterday's paper reports that cell phones are being used along the Chinese border by many people. (They bury them in their gardens when not in use to avoid police sweeps.) Chinese merchants smuggled thousands of used video recorders across the northern border after DVDs replaced them in Manchuria. Somehow tapes of South Korean movies and music have come in along with the video players. They have become so popular that Pyongyang has launched propaganda campaigns inveighing against the foreign styles in clothing, language, and other customs that people pick up from the tape recorders. This is, of course, all illegal. A favorite tactic of the police is to surround an area, cut off the electricity, and then move in. As a result they are able to arrest many whose video player stopped in the middle and they were unable to get the banned tapes out of them. The main effect that the tapes have, however, is not the transmission of styles but rather the transmission of backgrounds that show a society in the south that is infinitely better off than that in the north. The claim that North Korea has created a "worker's paradise" rings increasingly hollow.

It would seem to me that the Kim family regime cannot long remain in its present form. The next generation is coming on, and the "Dear Leader"'s three sons are said to be contesting the succession. Perhaps this is the opening for change. Military commanders, no matter how servile, have in other situations grabbed power in crises. This might also happen. A popular movement might suddenly arise around some incident leading quickly to uncontrollable crowds in the streets. This seems highly unlikely to experts, but it is still a possible route. History suggests that all it takes is for a repressive regime to lose its confidence in such a crisis, to hesitate. There is probably such a wealth of suppressed hatred among the North Korean people that any opening, any softening, ironically any showing of respect for human rights, could lead to an explosion. In any event, the United States should be engaged in urgent negotiations with all of North Korea's neighbors on the definition of possible transition scenarios and the ways in which the United States and neighboring states could most effectively respond during and after a transition crisis. It would be a sad commentary on the world if the streets of Pyongyang were one day running in blood while the rest of the world stood by timidly watching until the last resister was hunted down.