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Thursday, February 17, 2005

Syria and Iran — the Shi'a Connection 

Iran and Syria have grown closer together as American pressure on both countries has increased. It appears, however, that the new strategic alliance just announced between the two countries is hardly new. They maintained this alliance during the Iran-Iraq war although Syria was too weak to really help Iran. They have also worked together in supporting Hezbollah, the Party of God, both to strengthen its role in the multiethnic politics of Lebanon and in the struggle against Israel. It is important to realize that unlike Hamas with its Sunni affiliations, Hezbollah has Shi'a affiliations, hence its support from Iran.

What has not been mentioned recently in the press is the fact that Syria is actually run politically by a heterodox Shiite minority (the Alawites) within the Baath party (originally the same party as that in Iraq). The present ruler and his father, both Assads, have led this faction since the 1970s. The most dramatic event in their rule was the attempt of the Muslim Brotherhood (a Sunni group incidentally related to Hamas) to throw off Alawite rule in 1982. The revolt started in the Sunni stronghold of Hama. Al-Assad decided to put down the revolt in Hama by leveling the city. It is estimated that he killed at least 30,000 people. There have been few attempts at revolt since.

The Alawites, or followers of the Prophet Ali, are related historically to the Ithna Ashariya or twelver sect of Shiism, the sect dominant in Iran and among the Shi'a of Iraq. The Alawites are one of the surviving sects from a splintering of groups in the Middle Ages that also produced the Ismaili of Aga Khan fame and the Druze of Lebanon. Many Muslims regard them as heretics and hardly Muslim (as extremist Sunnis also regard the Ithna Ashariya of Iran and Iraq). But they are actually much more heterodox than traditional Shiites. They seldom attend mosques and often drink wine, even as a ritual. They also preserve Iranian customs such as the celebration of Nowruz (New Years). Like the Baath of Iraq, they are very secularist (which has a better fit with their religious traditions than the Iraqi Baathists who are mostly Sunnis, or at least from Sunni families).

It should therefore not be surprising that the Syrian government, dominated by what is in effect another Shiite sect, should feel an affinity for the Iranians that they may not feel for the rest of the Muslim world. Right now there is an important cleavage (not often mentioned by their leaders) between the conservative, ostensibly highly religious Iranian governing class and the heretical, secular leadership group in Syria. However, if Iran moves in the secular direction a large percentage of its young people would like to see, one can imagine even closer ties between Damascus and Tehran in the future. On the other hand, if democracy actually breaks out in Syria, the Alawites will be thrown out and the relations of the two societies will sour. We shall see.

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