Tuesday, January 25, 2005
Iraq’s Election: The Pieces are Falling into Place
As hard as it may be for the many doubters of President Bush’s poorly planned adventure in Iraq to believe it, it appears now as though the election may come off reasonably well and that the aftermath will not be a disaster.
This last week apparently attacks tapered off. This is not much help to those still being killed, but it is a good sign. I assume violence will intensify again, with a crescendo on the actual voting days.
While all this takes place, Iraqi politicians are moving in surprisingly positive directions. The leaders of the top Shi’a parties have announced that if they win, they do not intend to set up a religious government of any kind. There will be no “turbans” in government positions. They intend to establish a secular state because that is what they feel the people of Iraq really want. This state will not require women to cover up as is the case in so many other Islamic states. These statements go considerably beyond what Sistani has suggested before. They seem aimed at pleasing the Sunni Arabs (who partly for nationalist reasons fear an Iranian state), the Kurds who have developed a quite secular way of life in their enclave and do not want to lose that, and of course the Americans who have all along feared the Ayatollahs taking over a la Iran (in spite of the assurances by such as Juan Cole that this is not what the Shi’as want). Now we should be careful. It almost seems too good to be true. We must remember that Khomeini was believed at first to want such a relatively secular state too. His first Prime Minister was a member of the old liberal opposition to the Shah. But this did not last long. Just a thought.
In the Sunni Arab community, some leaders are continuing to stand for election while others say their followers will not vote. However, most of them say that they will in any event have a hand in writing the Constitution. In other words, they are not rejecting the process of movement toward a new state that is to occupy 2005. How they will participate, and whether they will be satisfied with their part is another question.
This last week apparently attacks tapered off. This is not much help to those still being killed, but it is a good sign. I assume violence will intensify again, with a crescendo on the actual voting days.
While all this takes place, Iraqi politicians are moving in surprisingly positive directions. The leaders of the top Shi’a parties have announced that if they win, they do not intend to set up a religious government of any kind. There will be no “turbans” in government positions. They intend to establish a secular state because that is what they feel the people of Iraq really want. This state will not require women to cover up as is the case in so many other Islamic states. These statements go considerably beyond what Sistani has suggested before. They seem aimed at pleasing the Sunni Arabs (who partly for nationalist reasons fear an Iranian state), the Kurds who have developed a quite secular way of life in their enclave and do not want to lose that, and of course the Americans who have all along feared the Ayatollahs taking over a la Iran (in spite of the assurances by such as Juan Cole that this is not what the Shi’as want). Now we should be careful. It almost seems too good to be true. We must remember that Khomeini was believed at first to want such a relatively secular state too. His first Prime Minister was a member of the old liberal opposition to the Shah. But this did not last long. Just a thought.
In the Sunni Arab community, some leaders are continuing to stand for election while others say their followers will not vote. However, most of them say that they will in any event have a hand in writing the Constitution. In other words, they are not rejecting the process of movement toward a new state that is to occupy 2005. How they will participate, and whether they will be satisfied with their part is another question.
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