Monday, January 31, 2005
Iraq Elections
In spite of a great deal of sniping by some commentators (such as Herbert in the NY Times and Juan Cole in his excellent blog), the election in Iraq was a great occasion for Bush, for the Middle East, and for the Iraqi people. The defenses held. People went into the streets, and they voted. The heroism of people in much of the country was truly astounding — voting as the mortars went off in the background.
The most amazing renunciation, the one that got us to this point, was the order of the Ayatollah Sistani to his followers to not fight back when they were attacked. The result was that several insurgent attempts to ignite sectarian war got no where at all. The other was his order to all Shi’a to vote, an order that in Baghdad seemed to override the last minute attempt of some in the Mahdi Army to discourage voting.
Of course, we do not yet know the particulars. In some areas many Sunni Arabs voted; in others very few did. The statement of that overall 60% voted is subject to modification. It may well be much less. But it will certainly turn out to be more than 40%, which was the “success” figure some had indicated. It was true that many people had a confused ideas of what they were voting for. But the fact they did not know individuals seems beside the point. They knew of the lists, and seemed remarkably able to distinguish among hundreds of lists. Many of the voters did not want to be seen as Shi’a or Sunni: they were Iraqis and voted as Iraqis. Of course, these distinctions are important, but I think that foreigners in an attempt to make sense of what they are seeing sometimes do overemphasize such differences. Many Iraqis, especially in the major cities, are secular. They want a secular society and care less for these divisions. Perhaps the most important fact was that Arab television in the days before the election and on election day turned its attention to the election, reporting it in full and sometimes with positive commentary.
By the middle of February the results should be sorted out. Then the new Assembly will be established. Lots of bridges must be crossed. But I suspect that before the Assembly is established, the heart will have gone out of the insurgency. It will go on, but decline in intensity. The new government will feel more confident than the one it replaces. The people will feel more confident, and with that the Iraqi governmental forces. I suspect that in the new euphoria there may well be calls for the United States to work out a withdrawal time table.
The tough times for Iraq’s democracy will come when the United States is largely out and the groups begin fighting among themselves (which may include Shi’a versus Shi’a). Many peoples are not good at compromise and compromise is the most essential attribute of democracy.
The most amazing renunciation, the one that got us to this point, was the order of the Ayatollah Sistani to his followers to not fight back when they were attacked. The result was that several insurgent attempts to ignite sectarian war got no where at all. The other was his order to all Shi’a to vote, an order that in Baghdad seemed to override the last minute attempt of some in the Mahdi Army to discourage voting.
Of course, we do not yet know the particulars. In some areas many Sunni Arabs voted; in others very few did. The statement of that overall 60% voted is subject to modification. It may well be much less. But it will certainly turn out to be more than 40%, which was the “success” figure some had indicated. It was true that many people had a confused ideas of what they were voting for. But the fact they did not know individuals seems beside the point. They knew of the lists, and seemed remarkably able to distinguish among hundreds of lists. Many of the voters did not want to be seen as Shi’a or Sunni: they were Iraqis and voted as Iraqis. Of course, these distinctions are important, but I think that foreigners in an attempt to make sense of what they are seeing sometimes do overemphasize such differences. Many Iraqis, especially in the major cities, are secular. They want a secular society and care less for these divisions. Perhaps the most important fact was that Arab television in the days before the election and on election day turned its attention to the election, reporting it in full and sometimes with positive commentary.
By the middle of February the results should be sorted out. Then the new Assembly will be established. Lots of bridges must be crossed. But I suspect that before the Assembly is established, the heart will have gone out of the insurgency. It will go on, but decline in intensity. The new government will feel more confident than the one it replaces. The people will feel more confident, and with that the Iraqi governmental forces. I suspect that in the new euphoria there may well be calls for the United States to work out a withdrawal time table.
The tough times for Iraq’s democracy will come when the United States is largely out and the groups begin fighting among themselves (which may include Shi’a versus Shi’a). Many peoples are not good at compromise and compromise is the most essential attribute of democracy.
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