Iraq and Afghanistan

Last night Juan Cole and another expert on the Lehrer news show suggested that the election would be a success if more than 40% of eligible voters participated (in the range of the “success” of the recent Palestinian vote). Considering the fact that at least half the Shiites and most of the Kurds are outside the violent areas, this suggestion seemed encouraging. The percentages that might be imagined are: 65% of Kurds (or 12% of total), 60% of half of the Shiites (or 20% of total) and 30% of half of Shiites (12% of total) and 10% of Sunni Arabs (or 2% of total). This should add up to a total vote of 46%. I expect that well less than a third of the potential “overseas vote” will actually come in. However, in my own calculations this doesn't mean much. There simply were too few polling places in most countries (5 in the United States for example). In spite of heroic efforts most people could not make this effort.

My hopes were raised when I noted that the areas of violence in Baghdad had greatly declined in Sadr City over previous months while holding the same in the rest of the city. However, by today’s paper we learn that al-Sadr’s lieutenants are telling their people not to vote (even though some of the Mahdi Army are on the lists). This strikes quite a blow at my confidence. So we will see. Generally these things turn out better than expected.

If the election is widely viewed as a failure, then there will be a demand on the American home front that we leave (the insurgents have this right).