Iraq and Afghanistan

As the days toward the upcoming election drag on, we hear a steady drumbeat of reported assassinations, roadside bombs, attacks on police stations, attacks on anyone in any way connected to the election. Yet we also read of the continuing hope of the Iraqi people that the election will mean something. Seven to eight million are expected to vote in the country, another million overseas. It is now estimated that 2/3 of the people of Baghdad will participate. Half of these are expected to vote for secular parties; half for religious. Perhaps a million overseas Iraqis are registering at considerable expense and expected to vote. Among the overseas, there are few reports of killings or fears. Particularly in the United States, the Iraqis seem happy to have the opportunity. Fear does not stalk the community. For Americans, used to a soft, carefree life in the suburbs, it seems inconceivable that the potential Iraqi voters in Iraq could be this blasé about the dangers, so ready to face the possibility of death from unknown enemies. Candidates are campaigning, if only in secret. They are assisted by the fact that voters are voting for parties rather than individuals, thereby reducing candidate exposure. In the toughest areas they have decided to have registration and voting occur at the same time to reduce the exposure of the voters before election day.

My belief is that the vote will take place on January 30; in most of the country it will be a success; the Shi’a candidates will win overwhelmingly, but they will not be a unified force within the parliament; Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders will be given a role in the resulting government. After this God only knows. It may all break apart again. Elections are by no means the end of the game. We can only hope that we can with a little urging from the new government find a graceful exit.

If this is pulled off, some heroes in heroic organizations need to be recognized. In Iraq, it is the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq and their thousands of employees working with the assistance of the United Nations. Outside Iraq, it is the International Organization for Migration, a group associated with the United Nations that has done a phenomenal job in just a few weeks. And again back in Iraq, it is the more than a thousand candidates that have allowed their names to be put on party lists, and finally it is the millions of individual voters willing to take a chance on democracy. I know, talking this way sounds too much like George, but we have to be prepared to admit that his foolish faith appears at this moment to be not entirely foolish.

Another way to look at this is to think back on the story in today’s paper of Iraqis coming as far as 900 miles to register in Nashville, only to have to come back another 900 miles in two weeks to vote. And think about their hopeful and relaxed attitude. One can draw two obvious conclusions. First, the Iraqi insurgency is extremely weak in the Iraqi community in the United States, so weak as to hardly make their opposition to the election known. Second, the international “enemy”, the al-Qaida that does have its supporters in Iraq has not been able to make much progress in extending its operations to this country. There is still the possibility of a couple of al-Qaida spectaculars in America (the inauguration is an obvious time of danger), but even if these are brought off, the American public can be reassured by the easy-going confidence of the Iraqis amongst us that the country is not a honeycomb of Islamic cells planning our destruction. If they are here, they are few and scattered, with limited long-term capacity.