Iraq and Afghanistan

In Spite of everything, movement toward the January election seems inexorable. I heard a military expert in Iraq today decrying the state of the war effort. Yet when asked whether the elections would take place, he said that they would take place on time, and suggested in passing that in 14 of 18 provinces there would be no serious problems. December 15 was the date on which the campaigning was to begin. The final registration tallied 3500 candidates organized in 230 political groups that were themselves organized in nine alliances. All are competing for 275 seats in the national assembly to draft a final constitution. Allawi himself registered his alliance of six parties, the “Iraqi List” at the last minute. It is a secular Shiite-Sunni group composed of former Baath party members that is not expected to win many votes. It is remarkable that in an election run by Allawi with American backing, the expected outcome will not be his victory, as is the case in most such arrangements, but a parliament in which he will represent a marginal group, if represented at all. He was not able to combine his forces with those of Adnan Pachachi who registered separately as “the Iraqi Democratic Gathering”, again a secular group of Sunnis and Shi’as. Of course, the group overwhelmingly favored to win the most seats is the 22 party United Iraqi Alliance that brings together most of the Shiite groups. The old communist party, shattered by Saddam, has come together again with other leftist parties in a “Union of the People”. At the last minute, the United Nations is sending more people to help with the election. I note that Senator Bayh of Indiana, who is otherwise very critical of what is going on, is quite taken with the ability and optimism of the United Nations personnel.

There is a curious disjunction between much of the reporting on Iraq that concentrates on violence and the impossibility of having a meaningful election under these conditions and what seems to be happening regardless of the violence. Every day another Iraqi leader is attacked, often fatally, and more national guardsmen or police are killed. The most recent horror was in Karbala, in the heart of the relatively peaceful Shi’a area. It is almost as if Iraqis have become so inured to the violence and threat of violence that nothing can phase them. Of course, it is remarked that it is not expected that large campaign rallies can be a part of the process. More likely, campaigning will be through the use of the media, especially television. The extent to which television will be fairly available to the different factions is yet to be seen.