Iraq and Afghanistan

Two experts in the American security community, apparently with Iranian backgrounds, offer in today's Times an appraisal of the growing role of the Revolutionary Guards in the Iranian power structure. (Ironically, the Revolutionary Guards seem to have developed in parallel with the Republican Guards of Saddam Hussein. They serve much the same purpose: an elite military force with special responsibility for preserving the regime in power — in this case the ruling clergy of Iran.) Over the last fifteen years the Guards have gradually increased in number and equipment, and now have even their own navy. Making up about a third of the numbers of the regular army, they appear to be the most formidable force in the country. The Guards control the development of the missile programs and it is thought that the Guards are the ones guiding the development of nuclear weapons and opposing anything that would restrict this development. Their political power has been growing in tandem. Former members make up a third of the parliament elected this year. One of their leaders may run for President in the up-coming May election. And they oppose further development of the regular army. And like many armies in the less developed world, they have considerable business interests.

The conclusion of the analysts is that there are real and potential fissures between the Guards and their one-time creators, the establishment clergy, as well as between the Guards and the other armed services. They advise the United States to develop a "nuanced policy" that exploit these and other potential rifts.