Thursday, December 23, 2004
Juan Cole on Recent Events
As I have referenced several times, Professor Juan Cole at Michigan offers perhaps the most informed and useful blog on the Iraq war from an academic viewpoint. He knows Iraq well, particularly the history of its Shi'a community.
It is encouraging to find that his most recent posts seem to have a different tone from those earlier in the year. He is more friendly and supportive of the American effort than he has been in the past. Reading on, this seems to reflect the decision by the overwhelming majority of the Iraqi Shiites to support the electoral process. He is scathing in his denunciation of the statement by Khomenei of Iran that the Americans and the Israelis were behind the attacks in Najaf and Kerbala. He points out once again that the Iraqi Shiites are uninterested in such statements. They are Iraqis and do not take kindly to outside Iranian interference. It is his thought that the insurgency has all along been primarily a Baathist effort, and that the attacks in the holy cities should also be ascribed to the Baathists. These attacks were, incidentally, also denounced by the leading Sunni clerics association.
Cole remains bothered that there is too much violence for the elections to be held in January. If large numbers of Sunni Arabs voters are kept away from the polls, this will make any constitution that came out of the process suspect in the eyes of many. However, unlike the New York Times which in its recent editorial called again for a postponement in view of our evident inability to control the violence, Cole believes this has to be balanced against the strong support of the Kurds and Shiites for having the elections as soon as possible. As he says, "the U.S. has to make the Shi'a community happy". The growing closeness of the U.S. and the Shi'a is suggested by the following note: "The U.S. has been fighting Sunni Arab guerrillas in Babil province to stop their attacks on Shiite locals and pilgrims, an action warmly supported by Iraqi vice president Ibrahim Jaafari and other Shiite leaders."
Cole repeats a discussion with the Iraqi education ministry. Apparently the situation has improved quite a bit. Many Baathists who were formerly excluded from teaching are now back teaching again while a number of non-Baathists who excluded from teaching by the Baathists under Saddam are also now teaching. Many schools have been repaired and new ones are being built. There are 6 million students and 370,000 teachers, giving an overall ratio of 19/1, although some schools are still in want of teachers.
In the international relations area, the Jordanian and Egyptian foreign ministers are warning Iraq against the possibility of a sectarian state, while Iran has closed its borders because it thinks Iraq is too dangerous for pilgrims!
Do not misunderstand. Cole is still very down on the war, how it has been initiated, and how it is being carried on (he even has a note on where one can contribute clothing for our soldiers in Iraq). He points out the dangers. The chief one being that the Shiite leaders will not be able to continue to restrain their followers from striking back at the Sunni Arabs, thus inviting a more thorough explosion. He also points out the danger that Saudi Arabia will be hit with more attacks by al-Qaida, particularly of its oil lines. This may become particularly serious when a generation of battle-hardened Jihadists return from Iraq if and when things quiet down there.
It is encouraging to find that his most recent posts seem to have a different tone from those earlier in the year. He is more friendly and supportive of the American effort than he has been in the past. Reading on, this seems to reflect the decision by the overwhelming majority of the Iraqi Shiites to support the electoral process. He is scathing in his denunciation of the statement by Khomenei of Iran that the Americans and the Israelis were behind the attacks in Najaf and Kerbala. He points out once again that the Iraqi Shiites are uninterested in such statements. They are Iraqis and do not take kindly to outside Iranian interference. It is his thought that the insurgency has all along been primarily a Baathist effort, and that the attacks in the holy cities should also be ascribed to the Baathists. These attacks were, incidentally, also denounced by the leading Sunni clerics association.
Cole remains bothered that there is too much violence for the elections to be held in January. If large numbers of Sunni Arabs voters are kept away from the polls, this will make any constitution that came out of the process suspect in the eyes of many. However, unlike the New York Times which in its recent editorial called again for a postponement in view of our evident inability to control the violence, Cole believes this has to be balanced against the strong support of the Kurds and Shiites for having the elections as soon as possible. As he says, "the U.S. has to make the Shi'a community happy". The growing closeness of the U.S. and the Shi'a is suggested by the following note: "The U.S. has been fighting Sunni Arab guerrillas in Babil province to stop their attacks on Shiite locals and pilgrims, an action warmly supported by Iraqi vice president Ibrahim Jaafari and other Shiite leaders."
Cole repeats a discussion with the Iraqi education ministry. Apparently the situation has improved quite a bit. Many Baathists who were formerly excluded from teaching are now back teaching again while a number of non-Baathists who excluded from teaching by the Baathists under Saddam are also now teaching. Many schools have been repaired and new ones are being built. There are 6 million students and 370,000 teachers, giving an overall ratio of 19/1, although some schools are still in want of teachers.
In the international relations area, the Jordanian and Egyptian foreign ministers are warning Iraq against the possibility of a sectarian state, while Iran has closed its borders because it thinks Iraq is too dangerous for pilgrims!
Do not misunderstand. Cole is still very down on the war, how it has been initiated, and how it is being carried on (he even has a note on where one can contribute clothing for our soldiers in Iraq). He points out the dangers. The chief one being that the Shiite leaders will not be able to continue to restrain their followers from striking back at the Sunni Arabs, thus inviting a more thorough explosion. He also points out the danger that Saudi Arabia will be hit with more attacks by al-Qaida, particularly of its oil lines. This may become particularly serious when a generation of battle-hardened Jihadists return from Iraq if and when things quiet down there.
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