Iraq and Afghanistan

Several more positive steps have recently been made in support of the elections. First, the Americans have decided to put 12,000 more troops in until after the election (at least). Second, Allawi is on another campaign to get support for the election. This time he is in Jordan. Jordan now says it backs the early elections. In Jordan he is meeting with many Sunni leaders, party and otherwise. These include some of the Sunni tribal leaders with whom he has had past relationships. They evidently find it more comfortable in Jordan these days.

There have been some interesting new ideas about how the elections might be carried out in stages, so-called "rolling elections". After the first elections in the safer areas, security forces would be brought in for short periods in one area after another until people had had a reasonable chance to vote everywhere. While people elected in the first round would meet before the completion of the process, it is thought that they might agree to dealing with non-binding measures that could easily be changed when they meet after the completion of the process.

Many academics continue to believe that we have lost already in Iraq, partly because of the record there and partly because of the general proposition that insurgencies like this do not fail. This is a respectable argument. However, my judgement is that this election will take place regardless. If it does get a reasonable turnout most places, or is repaired some way, then we will be faced with a new situation — a government now considered legitimate by more than 50% of Iraqis will be the enemy of the insurgents. Clearly, many cases in the past, such as Sri Lanka, suggest this is not the end of the story, but it should certainly change the parameters.