Iraq and Afghanistan

The International Institute for Strategic Studies in one of its latest releases characterizes recent American steps, such as the invasion of Iraq, as well as its one-sided Middle Eastern policy more generally, as helping the al-Qaida recruitment (supporting the thesis of Scheuer recently discussed in this blog). Iraq may well be seen in retrospect to have been a valuable proving ground for Jihadists if they later fan out over the world in pursuit of globalist objectives. However, the report also points out that the ideology and focus of al-Qaida appears to be in flux. They have some positives, but also negatives. They are dispersed more than they were and seem to be less under the direction of the center. Many of the groups that work with al-Qaida, for example in Southeast Asia, have reason to work with it tactically, but they do not have the global goals of the parent organization. This has two implications. First, such groups can be dealt with on a bargaining basis. Second, they are unlikely to be interested in using weapons of mass destruction.

The report believes that efforts against al-Qaida have reduced its effectiveness in the short run. However, in the longer run it sees the need for a change in U.S. policies that will make it less possible for al-Qaida to picture the West as an eternal enemy of Islam (again Scheuer's thesis). This needed change is referred to as moving toward more emphasis on "soft power" rather than "hard" (this is not an argument Scheuer would make).