Wednesday, December 29, 2004
Democracy Emerging from a Bath of Blood?
Last night Zbigniew Brezezinski, one of my personal heroes, was interviewed on the Lehrer show as to what he thought was going to happen in Iraq. Unfortunately, he seemed to have it all wrong. First, he thought that there was little chance that a successful election could be held under the circumstances. Second, he thought that the system that emerged if the process went forward would be a theocracy that would be a long way from being a democracy. Walter Russell Mead, another foreign policy expert that sat with him demurred. He said, rightly, that the situation was more hopeful and that it was unlikely that the Shiites would set up anything like what they had in Iran. The fact is that the doubters, the good guys that opposed the war, have allowed their opposition to get in the way of their judgment. The bloody mess is just that. But it does not mean that it is hopeless. It may well be that Iraqis have become so inured to killing over the last generation that their response to the daily toll in their country is not as overwhekming as it would be for more fortunate or pampered Americans. It certainly does not mean that we are fighting Islam in Iraq, in a version of Sam Huntington’s war of civilizations (a common belief of many pundits), nor that the bad guys will necessarily win. What it does mean is that a lot of blood is yet to be spilled.
Today’s paper has a fascinating piece on the reactions of minorities in northeast Syria to the chance for democracy in Iraq. Minorities in this case mean Armenians, Assyrian Christians, and Kurds. It even included repressed political minorities such as the communists (what an irony that they should be looking to us to bail them out). The reporter was amazed at the optimism of their leaders. What they saw was a chance for democracy not only in Iraq, but in Syria as well. They believed that events in Iraq had already started to weaken the controls they have been living under. (Remember that the other branch of the Baath party has been in control of Syria for more than a generation now.) The goals of these leaders are quite different. The Kurds are rejoicing in what they see as a chance for an autonomous Kurdistan. There has already been dancing in the streets for this goal (suppressed of course by the police). The Christian groups, on the other hand, see the possibility for a more democratic Syria in which they would have something more like equality than what they have had.
At this point, it is only a dream, a spark likely to be extinguished. But it does show that the ideological team behind Bush, with its dream of a democratic Middle East emerging from Iraq, is not as foolish as most regional and foreign policy experts here and abroad have believed. Of course, there is still a long way to go.
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