Iraq and Afghanistan

The "Fride" research organization in Madrid has provided a useful rundown on the elections in Afghanistan, recent and future. In the presidential election, the fact of significant opposition was important, as was the estimated 70% participation. The campaigning was short and not very meaningful, with most attention being given to trying to obtain concessions from Karzai as a price for withdrawal. Still, some important regional personages opposed Karzai, and two or three overwhelming won in their local areas. The fact, however, that they were largely unknown outside their home territories gave a tremendous advantage to Karzai. The results showed good turnout countrywide, and for women it was higher than expected, except in a few extremely conservative southern areas. Karzai generally did especially well in urban areas. He also won Herat, a surprise (although throwing out Ismail Khan a few weeks ahead of the elections may have accounted for the difference between results here and in the areas won by the Uzbek and Hazara leaders). The Tajik leader Qanooni did not win any large areas, but won 95% in the Panjshir, the center of the resistance against both the Soviets and the Taliban.

Looking toward the elections later this year, the analysis points out that the irregularities in the election that were insignificant with Karzai's overwhelming victory, would not be insignificant in closer elections. 2005 elections will be for district councils, provincial councils, and the lower house of parliament. Since none of these institutions exist at present, carrying out such elections successfully presents quite a challenge. There is a real danger that the local militias of the warlords and captains of the drug trade will be able to capture too large a proportion of the positions for the health of the society. Karzai has shown himself adept at making deals with local powers. Let us hope he can change his approach to get beyond this point. Nevertheless, recent polls show a great deal of popular confidence in the system and the process. Let us hope that the international community can help them attain the brighter future that they expect.