Iraq and Afghanistan

Today’s paper suggests that the situation in Iraq may be better than many have thought. First, as we have already commented, the international community meeting in Egypt has been willing to accept the idea of an election as the solution. Perhaps more significantly, the meetings did not turn into a propaganda bashing over events in Falluja. It appears that many people, in and outside Iraq, have become increasingly tired of the indiscriminate killing by the insurgents. Second, a insurgent web site broadcast a tape of Zarqawi condemning Sunni Arab clerics for having “let them down” in their greatest hour of need. It goes on to say that clerics have apparently “stopped supporting the Mujahedeen”. If this tape is authentic, it has several implications. First, Falluja was an American victory. It has been noticed that after a flurry of attacks, insurgent incidents have declined a bit. The continuing struggle in Mosul and elsewhere might be a desperate last gasp (hope, hope). The new offensive by government and Coalition forces south of Baghdad seems to be going well. It is also significant that a main goal of this offensive is the suppression of criminal gangs rather than the usual targets. Also, if the Sunni clerics have by and large backed off a bit, it may indicate that there is a growing rift between the extremist doctrines of Zarqawi and other ‘Salafists” and the more mainstream Sunnis. This has always been a potential line of cleavage but so far we had not seen much of it. This would rather isolate most of the “foreigners”. Finally, there appears to be increasing political activity leading up to the elections. More than 200 Iraqi political parties have registered for the elections. The Shi’a are working hard on trying to get a single list put together so that they can end up dominating the scene.