Iraq and Afghanistan

The Presidential election went fairly well and we are looking forward to parliamentary elections that will make possible the creation of a fully functioning democracy in Afghanistan. However, all is not going well. The United Nations reports that Afghanistan is now producing more opium and heroin than it ever has in its history. Kabul’s interior minister claims that 87% of the world’s opium is produced in Afghanistan. This is no doubt a considerable exaggeration but gives some idea of the size of the problem. It is also significant that more and more of the processing of the raw opium into products meant for Western markets is now in Afghanistan. We can take comfort in the fact that reconstruction and improved security has now made possible the resurrection of a viable industry that had languished under the Taliban. However, experience in Colombia and elsewhere suggests that drugs and democracy make poor companions. For drugs are in the hands of a few people, often warlords, self-appointed or appointed by Kabul, who because of their control over relatively immense resources are able to control the countryside on a detailed basis through either intimidation, bribery, or other means of affecting the political process, democratic or not. There should be no doubt that the majority of the legislators elected in the near future will be beholden to a greater or lesser extent to the drug lords. This will be democracy, but perhaps not what we had in mind.

The government talks a good, anti-drug line, but it is during its watch (and that of the foreign soldiers as well) that the problem has mushroomed. There is some crop destruction, but in the long run it is unlikely to succeed. For farmers there is simply no crop that will come close to matching what opium offers in returns. The only effective control seems to be overproduction, and the effectiveness of this control will necessarily wax and wane. In addition to the other built-in advantages of growing opium, the lack of adequate transportation between farm and market also increases the attractiveness of a light, easily transported product for most Afghans. No one has good ideas on how to control this problem. certainly democracy and national self-determination are not going to help. Obviously creating democracies in the world cannot be our only concern.