Iraq and Afghanistan

Today’s paper lays out the outline of a new strategy for putting down the resistance. Apparently it all started with the actions at Tal Afar near the Syrian border. Then it moved to the clearing of Samarra. Now the action is in the Balil Province south of Baghdad. The plan is to bring the twenty or thirty most serious problem areas (towns or cities) under Iraqi-Coalition control before the elections in January. What they hope to do in the process, beyond the obvious, is to change who directs the action, to take the initiative away from the insurgents. They have developed a set of measurements to monitor the rate at which the Iraqi government is able to take over and control these problem areas.

The thinking is that this activity and this plan have been devised at least in part to counter the Kerry claim that Bush does not “have a plan” for Iraq. One hopes that the war is not being planned and fought on the basis of what will play best back home. Nevertheless, if it took Kerry to get things turned around a little, one should not complain. One particular problem that the new approach hopes to address is making possible the security of those Iraqis who want to cooperate with Allawi and the Americans. Because of the job situation, there have been many people seeking work, even under desperate conditions. But without security the well could dry up — the people could just stay home.

Meanwhile, the insurgent attacks go on, particularly in Baghdad. The latest attacks near and even within the “Green Zone” are apparently meant to prove to the citizens and the foreigners working in the country that there is and can be no “safe area”. Ayatollah Sistani wants the United Nations to take a larger part in the election process. Yet it is not going to do it as long as the security situation remains as it is, particularly in Baghdad. This leads one to wonder why the concentration in the new security effort is not on Baghdad itself, an area with about a fourth of the country’s population. If this city were as safe as say Kabul, the international community, investors, experts, and regular Iraqis would take heart and be a great deal more cooperative. One of the points often missed when Iraqis say “the Americans must leave” is that many Iraqis argue that the Americans have failed in their primary task, bringing security to Iraqis. As one articulate and well-educated Iraqi women told interviewers recently, “If they cannot do even this, let them leave and let us work out our problems among ourselves.”