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Sunday, October 10, 2004

Assessing the Enemy and Security in Iraq 

One of the most discouraging reports I have seen lately comes from a New York Times reporter in Baghdad discussing the problems that reporters have of getting out and seeing what is going on. Most reporters have simply left. Those who remain go out very seldom and then to the few areas that seem relatively safe. Even then they are finding it increasingly difficult to get Iraqis to talk with them. Even those who they had formerly developed relations with now avoid being seen with an American. Until this trend of reporter access reverses, it will be hard for our optimism to brighten very much.

Another report discusses the problem of finding out just who Zarqawi is. Apparently it is not at all clear that he is or ever was a follower of Ussama bin Ladin. His objectives seem to be the same as bin Ladin, but his methods are quite different. Ussama would never be seen cutting off someone's head. Many doubt that Zarqawi was ever a backer or tool of Saddam. Another group of authorities are convinced that Zarqawi is actually a competitor of bin Ladin's. The two are thought to be competing for the same pool of "soldiers".

Friedman in today's Op-Ed makes a further a different attempt to approach the "enemy definition" problem. He points out that the Iraqi insurgency seems to be able to recruit an unending stream of people willing to become suicide bombers. He relates this to the development of extremist Islamic thinking, believing that the secular tendencies of the earlier Saddam regime had begun to change toward the end for tactical reasons and that now what we are facing is a revitalized and fanatical Islam. However, Friedman should be reminded that for many years the most successful recruiters for suicide missions were the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka, and they were not religious at all. Nationalism and hatred of "the other" can evidently produce enough fanaticism for suicide. Still, Friedman's broader concern is a good one. The Palestinian suicide bombers are different. They are better known, the names often being released, and their objectives are clearer. Their reasons seem to involve a strong mixture of religion and nationalism. In Iraq, who the bombers are is much more secret and their goals cloudier. It is encouraging to realize that unlike the Israeli-Palestine problem, which for Americans is unsolvable because of internal American politics, it should be possible over time to reduce nationalist reasons for taking part in suicide bombings in Iraq. When the Americans leave, the queue should shorten.

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