Iraq and Afghanistan

Progress in the reconstruction of society, leave alone democratization, in Afghanistan suffers from the same indeterminacy as in Iraq. The primary difference is that both the Afghans and outside observers have more confidence that the Afghan leaders are calling most of the shots in Afghanistan than they do in Iraq. Most Afghans cannot view American an foreign forces as constituting an "occupation" in the same sense as Iraqis view our forces there to be an occupation. The fact that Kabul appears to be a much safer and more livable city today than Baghdad also gives a different complexion to the situation. However, it is still true that in much of the countryside the government is not in complete control, that the insurgency still has its safe areas and manages to infiltrate its operatives throughout the country. There is evidence that it has staying power. But evidently the government has staying power as well. Certain areas, such as the Uzbek fiefdom of General Dostum in the North, are out of control of Kabul, but are most unlikely to fall to the Taliban. These areas may be compared to the Kurdish areas of Iraq.

Judgments of success depend on who you believe and what seems important to you. If your measure is the extent to which women have gained freedom, the situation is not encouraging. In the major cities they are better off than they were. Certainly more girls are getting an education in much of the country than they did under the Taliban. But the extremely restrictive "tribal" way of life still dominates the countryside. The number of people who have registered to vote is astounding, and sometimes more than that (many people have managed to get several registration cards). But the hope for uncoerced voting in rural areas is fading. (Uncoerced voting generally comes at a later stage of democratic evolution in any event. We should never expect ideal Icelandic standards to a country such as Afghanistan.)

One of the best signs that the evolution of a stable system is proceeding is that the second presidential candidate, Yunis Qanooni, is attempting to get all the other opposition candidates to work together to force a runoff. It is also encouraging that while his message is anti-American and pro-Islamic, it is all very moderate. Essentially, his pitch is that the government has forgotten the Mojahedin, that it is labeling their leaders "warlords". His message "lets have more respect". Qanooni's movement has also been able to enlist support from a broad spectrum of ethnic groups, including the majority Pashtun (most of whom support their fellow ethnic Karzai).The moderation of both the government and the opposition bodes well for democracy and for American policy.