Tuesday, September 28, 2004
What is the Level of Violence in Iraq?
There is a growing feeling that we are trapped in a cycle of violence in Iraq. Today, let us see some arguments on both sides of this judgment. On the one side are experts such as Juan Cole who continues to report in greater detail than the media the litany of deaths and destruction. By his estimate the level of violence has been steadily rising since June. He apologizes today for having reported too large a safe area previously (see our earlier posting). He now thinks only the three Kurdish provinces are relatively safe. On Sunday, Maureen Dowd led yet another Times Op-Ed charge against the mendacity or delusion of an administration that cannot admit such an obvious fact.
On the other side, I read a fabulous Times account in Monday’s paper by a reporter who accompanied a truck convoy from Kuwait to Baghdad. He reports that at any one time there are about 700 large trucks hauling goods in Iraq. The drivers include many Americans as well as Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Somalis and others. They realize it is dangerous, but continue for the money and apparently the thrill and camaraderie “of the road”. The trucks largely move in large convoys, with accompanying humvees. Yet the impression is that they are very lightly protected. The long line of closely packed fuel trucks pictured in the article must present an enticing target for terrorists with rockets (Cole reports a recent attack on just such a line). Nearly all the drivers have had their trucks attacked at one time or another. But the trucks are getting through both for the military and the civilian economy. As far as the extent to which the violence is concentrated, the general consensus of the drivers was that danger increased with every mile from Kuwait to Baghdad. The reporter’s convoy stopped for a while before making a night run into the city.
This made me stop and think a little. The willingness of these drivers to take these risks suggests that there is more of a chance than we might think. If we imagine that a truck is stopped or highjacked every week, that is only 52 a year out of 700 plus large carriers. When we think of the civilian deaths at the hand of terrorists, we must remember this is a country of 26 million. I suspect that if we did the calculation, the danger for Israeli and Palestinian civilians over the last several years has probably been a good deal greater than for Iraqi civilians once the early stages of the war were behind them. I saw a report the other day on homicides dealt with in Baghdad hospitals. The doctors said that they were mostly domestic homicides, often revenge killings or other killings for honor.
I am not willing to go the Administration route and put on rose-colored glasses. But it is well to remember once again that the media do report what happens, not what does not happen. This can give a warped view. (For example, killings in American schools have been going down for many years; this would never be understood through watching or reading the media.)
On the other side, I read a fabulous Times account in Monday’s paper by a reporter who accompanied a truck convoy from Kuwait to Baghdad. He reports that at any one time there are about 700 large trucks hauling goods in Iraq. The drivers include many Americans as well as Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Somalis and others. They realize it is dangerous, but continue for the money and apparently the thrill and camaraderie “of the road”. The trucks largely move in large convoys, with accompanying humvees. Yet the impression is that they are very lightly protected. The long line of closely packed fuel trucks pictured in the article must present an enticing target for terrorists with rockets (Cole reports a recent attack on just such a line). Nearly all the drivers have had their trucks attacked at one time or another. But the trucks are getting through both for the military and the civilian economy. As far as the extent to which the violence is concentrated, the general consensus of the drivers was that danger increased with every mile from Kuwait to Baghdad. The reporter’s convoy stopped for a while before making a night run into the city.
This made me stop and think a little. The willingness of these drivers to take these risks suggests that there is more of a chance than we might think. If we imagine that a truck is stopped or highjacked every week, that is only 52 a year out of 700 plus large carriers. When we think of the civilian deaths at the hand of terrorists, we must remember this is a country of 26 million. I suspect that if we did the calculation, the danger for Israeli and Palestinian civilians over the last several years has probably been a good deal greater than for Iraqi civilians once the early stages of the war were behind them. I saw a report the other day on homicides dealt with in Baghdad hospitals. The doctors said that they were mostly domestic homicides, often revenge killings or other killings for honor.
I am not willing to go the Administration route and put on rose-colored glasses. But it is well to remember once again that the media do report what happens, not what does not happen. This can give a warped view. (For example, killings in American schools have been going down for many years; this would never be understood through watching or reading the media.)
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