Iraq and Afghanistan

The fatalities count for American and coalition forces for August was again up. It was up to 2.42 a day on average. To give some perspective on this, the figure is considerably more than June and July, about the same as May, but still much less than the two high points of fatalities during the occupation (last November and April). However, during the first 7 days of September, the average was up to 3.29, a figure that will be raised by today’s loss of at least five more soldiers. This should be understood in the context of several other statistical observations (rather than facts). It is reported, for example, on tonight’s news and in today’s paper that the number of attacks on Americans has increased dramatically in recent weeks. Since these seem to have resulted in a relatively low increase in fatalities, apparently the military has adopted at least safer strategies if not more effective. It also appears that Iraqi losses have been very heavy in recent weeks. First and foremost these are losses among the insurgents. The Mahdi Army has lost heavily. This attrition has started up again in Sadr City where after a lull of several days major attacks were made on American forces. Losses are also frequently heavy in the government’s security forces. Losses must also be heavy among “neutral” civilians, particularly in those areas such as Falluja where the Americans are bombing heavily rather than trying to retake urban areas. I am sure these attacks sometimes kill many insurgents, and the Americans feel they must do something in these areas. But such attacks in urban areas unavoidably kill civilians.

The Administration still talks as though they do not understand what is going on. I hope they have reports that support their conclusions. What I look forward is new evidence that the Interim Government is increasing its presence and control beyond the narrow confines patrolled by Coalition forces. The decimation of its leadership continues. They almost got the Governor of Baghdad today. The hoped for calming down of the Mahdi Army has obviously collapsed once again in Baghdad. Once again there is dancing in the streets at the deaths of Americans. We may not have to face an unraveling of our position just yet if ever, but some day we may have to, and I hope for the sake of both Iraqis and Americans that there is more to our leaving than cut and run. Unfortunately, we are now in an election season in which any admission that things are not going well seems to be unthinkable, thereby creating a dreamworld in which wishing for democracy is the same as creating democracy.