Thursday, September 16, 2004
National Intelligence Estimate: Scenarios for Iraq
Front page news today is a report on what is purported to be the gist of a National Intelligence Estimate prepared for the White House in July. The White House appears to have ignored it, for the Estimate paints a pessimistic picture of Iraq that is described as consisting of three pessimistic scenarios. The most positive scenario is that a democratic system is established after a long and difficult process, accompanied by a great deal of violence. The most pessimistic is that the country will lapse into civil war. What readers of this blog will find interesting is that this intelligence estimate strangely echoes the report by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (see blog for September 3) that also lays out three pessimistic scenarios, with the most pessimistic civil war etc. Was the CIA reading the work of the Royal Institute or do great minds simply think alike?
The news from Iraq seems now to be steadily worsening, especially for the Iraqis and their infrastructure. Neither the new Iraqi security services nor the Coalition forces seem to be able to prevent an escalation of daily tragedies. The pipeline system is in tatters, the power grid is easily taken down. Often the Americans come in with high firepower to and achieve yet another pyrrhic victory. More Iraqis are killed or wounded. Some times the civilians believe that the Americans were the real attackers; some times we or the Iraqi government are accused instead of not doing enough to protect the people. Clearly we are not doing enough. Clearly we do not have the forces to do enough. Clearly the Iraqi defense forces are not well enough trained or led to make enough difference.
Meanwhile back in Washington the administration appears to live in a magical world in which saying “democracy” creates “democracy”, and saying “we are winning” is the same as winning. I hope the administration is simply playing this word game until it gets reelected. On the other hand, I hate the thought that the Iraqi insurgents may be the only group that can actually defeat Bush. If this is their objective, they are certainly making a good run at it.
The news from Iraq seems now to be steadily worsening, especially for the Iraqis and their infrastructure. Neither the new Iraqi security services nor the Coalition forces seem to be able to prevent an escalation of daily tragedies. The pipeline system is in tatters, the power grid is easily taken down. Often the Americans come in with high firepower to and achieve yet another pyrrhic victory. More Iraqis are killed or wounded. Some times the civilians believe that the Americans were the real attackers; some times we or the Iraqi government are accused instead of not doing enough to protect the people. Clearly we are not doing enough. Clearly we do not have the forces to do enough. Clearly the Iraqi defense forces are not well enough trained or led to make enough difference.
Meanwhile back in Washington the administration appears to live in a magical world in which saying “democracy” creates “democracy”, and saying “we are winning” is the same as winning. I hope the administration is simply playing this word game until it gets reelected. On the other hand, I hate the thought that the Iraqi insurgents may be the only group that can actually defeat Bush. If this is their objective, they are certainly making a good run at it.
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