Iraq and Afghanistan

Today's Times has an interview with Amatzia Baram, an expert on Shiism at the Institute of Peace. He pointed out facts about Muqtada's appeal and situation that I was only vaguely aware of. I was aware that he was the son of a leading Iraqi Ayatollah who was executed by Saddam. He has not, however, taken religious training seriously, and until recently was not regarded as having religious credentials. However, after leading the recent uprising his followers have begun calling him a "hojatolislam", the next rung below ayatollah.

More ominously, he has announced that the Shiite Messiah, the Mahdi, is about to return from occlusion. His claim has been that the Americans knew this and invaded in order to grab him and kill him. He has labeled his army the "Mahdi Army", thus putting it at the service of the returning Mahdi. Therefore he says that he could not disband it even if he wanted to. He is also coming to be referred to by his followers in a manner that suggests they may think he is actually the returned Mahdi. (I noted that when Khomeini returned to Iran, supporters started calling him the "Imam" in a similarly ambiguous manner. For Shi'as "Imam" has a double meaning. It means the leader of the congregation, for example the leader of the Friday Prayers. But it also means the leader of all Muslims. The twelver Shi'as (which is the group we are concerned with here) consider there have been only 12 leaders of Islam. If he returned, the last imam who disappeared would be the Mahdi.

All four grand ayatollahs in Iraq today are quietists who see Muqtada as an upstart. But they are also very attuned to public opinion. It is true that for Muqtada to rise higher religiously he would need a mentor, which would be Ayatollah Haeri, now in Qom. Haeri is an activist and bitter anti-American. If he returns and endorses Muqtada, the other Iraqi Ayatollahs may become politically irrelevant in spite of their theoretical standing.