Iraq and Afghanistan

Moqtada al-Sadr and a New Crisis

In the last few days, al-Sadr has again called for a Jihad against Americans in Iraq. This has resulted in renewed fighting in many cities, but especially in the "Sadr City" section of Baghdad and the holy city of Najaf. In Baghdad fighting has been sporadic. The Mahdi Army still seems to be in effective control of this area. However, in Najaf the governor has gotten the U.S. Marines (who recently replaced the army) to help him and his police finally drive the Mahdi Army out of the city. The U.S. reports 300 killed, which may or may not be an exaggeration. In any event, there are many more captured and it appears as though the Sadrists are once again suffering heavy casualties. (The same story on a much less intensive basis is true in the other cities.)

The reason al-Sadr should once again challenge the Americans and the new government is unclear. But he may feel that with the gradual resumption of civilian courts and with a murder accusation against him outstanding, that allowing progress toward a more secure Iraq is dangerous for him. It is also possible that the Iranians, who readers may recall are said to assist all Shiite factions in Iraq, are supporting him more than in the past, thereby encouraging his efforts. This makes sense if we believe that the hard-line Iranians fear that a non-theocratic, majority Shiite Iraq would present a challenge to their system in Iran. Remember that the Khomeini brand of Shiism teaches that the Mojtahids should be directly involved in government, a concept enshrined in the Iranian Constitution. On the other hand, the Sistani brand of Shiism, generally more popular in both countries before the rise of Khomeini, teaches that religious leaders should not take a direct part in government.

Meanwhile al-Sistani left for Beirut shortly before the Najaf Governor ordered these attacks on the Mahdi Army. He is now going to London for treatment for a heart condition, supposedly not life threatening. It is unclear whether there is a connection. But it appears likely that he wanted to be out of the country when the Sadrists were attacked so that when he returns it will be all over and he would not have been implicated in it. Relations between him and al-Sadr are said to have been getting even worse in recent weeks. On the other side, al-Sadr had a sermon delivered that called the Americans the "worst Satans" and ascribed everything that has happened in Iraq to them (including the attacks on the Christian churches. Another Shi'a organization, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq which has been cooperating with the government and the Americans, has said it was trying to work out another cease fire.