Sunday, August 15, 2004
Is Our Iraq Experiment Falling Apart?
It has been a while since I issued my most pessimistic blogs in April; unfortunately, it appears to be time to put on my pessimist hat again.
For a long while, it has been assumed that our basic problem is the Sunni Triangle, the Jihadists and the Baathists. But concern about the threat they represent needs now to be set on a back burner. Muqtada al-Sadr can no longer be dismissed as a hot-headed leader of a bunch of unorganized thugs from the Shi'a underclass. No longer should we imagine that the more conservative Shi'a hierarchy will rein him in. They would like to, but appear unable to even if they continued to want to. Muqtada has managed to oppose the Americans and the new government cleverly and effectively, apparently building as he does so a reservoir of support throughout the country. It would appear now that he does have a less than laughable objective, which is to run the country.
These comments reflect the last few days' fighting in Najaf, Cole's latest comments, and a NYT report on the role of the Mahdi Army in Baghdad. The Americans and Iraqis are at a loss as to what to do in Najaf. They do not want to destroy the holiest of Shi'a shrines and yet the Mahdi Army continues to use it as their main base in the city. If they do go in with all guns blazing as they have threatened, they will be alienating both the Shi'as of Iraq and those far beyond. If they do not, then the reputation of Muqtada is enhanced. A major Ayatollah of Iraq (encamped in Qom until the Americans leave) has issued a fatwa saying that no Iraqi Muslim may fight on behalf of the government or the Americans. Shi'as are said to be streaming to Najaf from every direction to join up with the Army. Another report has most of the country below Najaf out of control of the government (this seems unlikely but could soon be so). The Shi'a continue to attack in a dozen other cities, the Americans responding with bombing that wins the day but does not help in the longer term. The latest reports suggest that the Americans and the Interim Government have effectively ceded the Sadr City area of Baghdad to the Mahdi Army whose administration is becoming more and more entrenched. More ominously, the Army is increasingly be able to exert its power throughout the city. Their forces appear able to raid almost at will even in the center. In a recent symbolic victory, an Iraqi-American attempt to set up a curfew in Sadr City was answered by a Sadrist announcement of a curfew for the entire city, one that was respected almost everywhere.
What are we left with? Within the well-protected area reserved for American and Iraqi administrations in Baghdad and in military camps throughout the country, as well as in Kurdish areas, there is the reality of a state progressing toward democracy under our auspices. But the bulk of the country appears to be sliding away from us and Allawi's administration. I can only hope that this pessimistic assessment is wrong.
For a long while, it has been assumed that our basic problem is the Sunni Triangle, the Jihadists and the Baathists. But concern about the threat they represent needs now to be set on a back burner. Muqtada al-Sadr can no longer be dismissed as a hot-headed leader of a bunch of unorganized thugs from the Shi'a underclass. No longer should we imagine that the more conservative Shi'a hierarchy will rein him in. They would like to, but appear unable to even if they continued to want to. Muqtada has managed to oppose the Americans and the new government cleverly and effectively, apparently building as he does so a reservoir of support throughout the country. It would appear now that he does have a less than laughable objective, which is to run the country.
These comments reflect the last few days' fighting in Najaf, Cole's latest comments, and a NYT report on the role of the Mahdi Army in Baghdad. The Americans and Iraqis are at a loss as to what to do in Najaf. They do not want to destroy the holiest of Shi'a shrines and yet the Mahdi Army continues to use it as their main base in the city. If they do go in with all guns blazing as they have threatened, they will be alienating both the Shi'as of Iraq and those far beyond. If they do not, then the reputation of Muqtada is enhanced. A major Ayatollah of Iraq (encamped in Qom until the Americans leave) has issued a fatwa saying that no Iraqi Muslim may fight on behalf of the government or the Americans. Shi'as are said to be streaming to Najaf from every direction to join up with the Army. Another report has most of the country below Najaf out of control of the government (this seems unlikely but could soon be so). The Shi'a continue to attack in a dozen other cities, the Americans responding with bombing that wins the day but does not help in the longer term. The latest reports suggest that the Americans and the Interim Government have effectively ceded the Sadr City area of Baghdad to the Mahdi Army whose administration is becoming more and more entrenched. More ominously, the Army is increasingly be able to exert its power throughout the city. Their forces appear able to raid almost at will even in the center. In a recent symbolic victory, an Iraqi-American attempt to set up a curfew in Sadr City was answered by a Sadrist announcement of a curfew for the entire city, one that was respected almost everywhere.
What are we left with? Within the well-protected area reserved for American and Iraqi administrations in Baghdad and in military camps throughout the country, as well as in Kurdish areas, there is the reality of a state progressing toward democracy under our auspices. But the bulk of the country appears to be sliding away from us and Allawi's administration. I can only hope that this pessimistic assessment is wrong.
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