Iraq and Afghanistan

Iran and Iraq Relations

Cole reports that Allawi recently cancelled his planned visit to Iran apparently because of claimed Iranian interference in Iraq. Iran's press has been attacking Iraq's Minister of Defense and vice-versa. Iran has also condemned the idea of sending a Saudi force into Iraq. Cole fears that the new PM, Defense and Interior ministers, although Shiite, are essentially seculars more able and willing to get along with Sunni Kuwaitis and Saudis than with Iran. The government also arrested one of al-Sadr's leaders in Karbala. The more religious Shiites may feel that they are being left out (although I see little evidence of that yet). We should watch to see whether this odd scenario of the Shiite government acting as a "Trojan Horse" to turn the government back over to the Baath pans out. It seems most unlikely to me. The critical issue will be whether the leading conservative Shi'a group remains an active participant in the national congress to national assembly process this month.