Thursday, August 05, 2004
Deteriorating Situation in Afghanistan
The number of attacks in Afghanistan is steadily increasing. Most of these are against civilians, and they are largely in the Pashto areas of the East and South. Nevertheless, neither the stronger foreign nor Afghan forces in the field seem to be able to make a difference in the toll. The fact that Doctors Without Borders felt they had to leave, because of the killing of staff members and what they felt was an inadequate response, was a bad sign. It still seems safer in Kabul than in Baghdad, but outside the city it is another story.
The Taliban and their allies (Hekmatyar and al-Qaida) are obviously aided by many who sympathize with them on the Pakistani side of the border. This includes most of the tribes and some in the Pakistani military. Yet our hands are tied. Musharref is the only one able to hold Pakistan together as even a part-time ally. We can threaten and cajole, but we do not want to take on the whole of Pakistan to make the border area safer.
The problem is further complicated by the falling out between Karzai and his defense minister Fahim (actually one of the leading warlords). Fahim now says he will switch his support to an alternative candidate for President. How this split will effect an election where I assume most of the votes in each area of the country will be determined by which faction is most powerful on the ground in that area is now cast in some doubt.
Karzai and his foreign supporters are faced with another dilemma. The Taliban forbade the growing of opium (although they greatly profited from opium already grown). Their defeat has led to an explosion of opium production to the point where the prices have collapsed. But even with these low prices, it remains the main cash crop for most Afghan farmers. The government has declared it illegal to grow. But the people continue to openly grow it, thereby weakening the government in everyone's eyes. No one in power has the will with elections in the offing to take on the unpopularity that a real anti-opium drive would entail.
Again, we have a problematic regime and people that need a major sustained effort by the outside world even to continue functioning, leave along achieve a reasonable level of democracy. Half measures and 20,000 Americans will not do it.
The number of attacks in Afghanistan is steadily increasing. Most of these are against civilians, and they are largely in the Pashto areas of the East and South. Nevertheless, neither the stronger foreign nor Afghan forces in the field seem to be able to make a difference in the toll. The fact that Doctors Without Borders felt they had to leave, because of the killing of staff members and what they felt was an inadequate response, was a bad sign. It still seems safer in Kabul than in Baghdad, but outside the city it is another story.
The Taliban and their allies (Hekmatyar and al-Qaida) are obviously aided by many who sympathize with them on the Pakistani side of the border. This includes most of the tribes and some in the Pakistani military. Yet our hands are tied. Musharref is the only one able to hold Pakistan together as even a part-time ally. We can threaten and cajole, but we do not want to take on the whole of Pakistan to make the border area safer.
The problem is further complicated by the falling out between Karzai and his defense minister Fahim (actually one of the leading warlords). Fahim now says he will switch his support to an alternative candidate for President. How this split will effect an election where I assume most of the votes in each area of the country will be determined by which faction is most powerful on the ground in that area is now cast in some doubt.
Karzai and his foreign supporters are faced with another dilemma. The Taliban forbade the growing of opium (although they greatly profited from opium already grown). Their defeat has led to an explosion of opium production to the point where the prices have collapsed. But even with these low prices, it remains the main cash crop for most Afghan farmers. The government has declared it illegal to grow. But the people continue to openly grow it, thereby weakening the government in everyone's eyes. No one in power has the will with elections in the offing to take on the unpopularity that a real anti-opium drive would entail.
Again, we have a problematic regime and people that need a major sustained effort by the outside world even to continue functioning, leave along achieve a reasonable level of democracy. Half measures and 20,000 Americans will not do it.
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