Tuesday, July 27, 2004
Kidnapping and a National Conference
Two news items have dominated the last two days. First is the continuation of the kidnapping campaign that seems intended to drive out the truck drivers and other workers who are assisting the Americans and Iraqis in the country. Second is the selection of delegates to a National Conference of 1000 Iraqis that is to then turn around and select from among their number a 100 seat Transitional Council to help to balance the new interim executive until elections next year.
The kidnapping campaign seems on one level to be succeeding. The Filipinos have withdrawn their forces a few weeks before they planned to. The Jordanian truck company says it will cease operations to meet the kidnappers demand. Other countries have suggested a greater unwillingness to get their nationals involved. The situation remains confused, however, as the kidnappers let the Egyptian diplomat go. This leads to three thoughts. One, how do we and the government oppose this campaign? We can only hope that the new Iraqi intelligence agency can come up with some useful information quickly. Second, the kidnappers may well represent a variety of groups. The Indian government says it believes some are in it for the money; this may be true, as this is a development that has quickly occurred in analogous cases. Third, I know of no case where kidnapping has actually led to a victory of the kidnappers. It is more a terrorist tactic than a guerrilla or insurgency tactic. And terrorists seldom win.
The selection of delegates to the National Conference has been plagued by the abstention of a number of important groups in the country. The Muslim Scholars Association is staying out, as is Moqtada al-Sadr's group and several national factions. The United Nations has been urging delay until more groups can be brought on board. However, the Iraqi government insists on going ahead. There is evidence that the exercise has a surprising degree of support. This includes many groups that have not so far backed the interim government, including the Dawa Party, the largest Shiite party. It is also encouraging that one of the "problems" that the organizers have had is that too many(!) people have been competing for the seats in the Conference. In Baghdad, 436 are competing for 40 seats. In Kut 1200 for 22 seats, in Najaf, 920 for 20 seats. Remember that candidacies are announced publicly, names are posted, candidates work the crowds. This outpouring of candidacies shows remarkable courage, which in turn shows a great desire in the minds of a large number of people that something come of this exercise. So far the overall impression is certainly positive.
Two news items have dominated the last two days. First is the continuation of the kidnapping campaign that seems intended to drive out the truck drivers and other workers who are assisting the Americans and Iraqis in the country. Second is the selection of delegates to a National Conference of 1000 Iraqis that is to then turn around and select from among their number a 100 seat Transitional Council to help to balance the new interim executive until elections next year.
The kidnapping campaign seems on one level to be succeeding. The Filipinos have withdrawn their forces a few weeks before they planned to. The Jordanian truck company says it will cease operations to meet the kidnappers demand. Other countries have suggested a greater unwillingness to get their nationals involved. The situation remains confused, however, as the kidnappers let the Egyptian diplomat go. This leads to three thoughts. One, how do we and the government oppose this campaign? We can only hope that the new Iraqi intelligence agency can come up with some useful information quickly. Second, the kidnappers may well represent a variety of groups. The Indian government says it believes some are in it for the money; this may be true, as this is a development that has quickly occurred in analogous cases. Third, I know of no case where kidnapping has actually led to a victory of the kidnappers. It is more a terrorist tactic than a guerrilla or insurgency tactic. And terrorists seldom win.
The selection of delegates to the National Conference has been plagued by the abstention of a number of important groups in the country. The Muslim Scholars Association is staying out, as is Moqtada al-Sadr's group and several national factions. The United Nations has been urging delay until more groups can be brought on board. However, the Iraqi government insists on going ahead. There is evidence that the exercise has a surprising degree of support. This includes many groups that have not so far backed the interim government, including the Dawa Party, the largest Shiite party. It is also encouraging that one of the "problems" that the organizers have had is that too many(!) people have been competing for the seats in the Conference. In Baghdad, 436 are competing for 40 seats. In Kut 1200 for 22 seats, in Najaf, 920 for 20 seats. Remember that candidacies are announced publicly, names are posted, candidates work the crowds. This outpouring of candidacies shows remarkable courage, which in turn shows a great desire in the minds of a large number of people that something come of this exercise. So far the overall impression is certainly positive.
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