Wednesday, July 21, 2004
Juan Cole's Latest on Developments in Iraq
Professor Juan Cole, an authority on Shi'a history and Iraq produces a highly informative blog on Iraq and related matters. He can be read here. As was pointed out in previous references, he is an academic who long ago decided that President Bush and company have been dreadfully wrong. His animus is great enough that he finds it hard to believe anything is going right in Iraq. Nevertheless, he has many personal contacts on the inside and continually reviews a wide variety of outside sources. What he comes up with is invaluable (I wonder if our intelligence services know as much about what is going on as he does.) Here let me just make a few comments on information gleaned from his latest posts.
First, he reports the killing of the acting Governor of Basra. His informants tell him that this is particularly important since the government of Basra has generally been supported by the people. In fact, the relatively free movement within Basra is one reason why it was so easy to pull off an assassination like this. It appears that some elements of the insurgency are uninterested in the character of the individuals killed. They only want to prove their power and sow havoc.
Second, he reports on a variety of fights within the Iraqi community, both among those who otherwise support the government and those who do not. In the Kirkuk region, the Kurds and Arabs are engaged in a particularly vicious sub-rosa struggle that involves the capturing of the children of one another's leaders. In Mosul, one of the Turkoman leaders was recently killed. The Turkoman community feels they are not being given sufficient attention and perhaps the Kurds or Arabs are fighting back. Turkey nearby is thought to be a supporter of their interests, something that may come up later. Within Baghdad and the Triangle there is continued struggle among Shi'a and Sunni, but also within both of these camps. Recently a leading Sunni divine was killed, probably by Baath or Salafist (extreme Sunnis) parties. Within the Shi'a world the standoff continues between al-Sadr and the rest, with al-Sadr apparently gaining some allies while he loses out on other fronts.
Again, I would emphasize that the insurgency seems doomed as long as it is merely destructive, sowing division and terror. They continue to operate without offering a plan to the people. Indeed, they could not have a plan when the extremist Sunni Islamists want a Sunni Shari'a-ruled state and the revolutionary Shi'a of the Mahdi Army want the same, only Shi'a, not Sunni. The nationalists, who may in fact have the most money and expertise, regardless of their numbers, simply want a modern, nationalist Iraq with themselves in charge.
Professor Juan Cole, an authority on Shi'a history and Iraq produces a highly informative blog on Iraq and related matters. He can be read here. As was pointed out in previous references, he is an academic who long ago decided that President Bush and company have been dreadfully wrong. His animus is great enough that he finds it hard to believe anything is going right in Iraq. Nevertheless, he has many personal contacts on the inside and continually reviews a wide variety of outside sources. What he comes up with is invaluable (I wonder if our intelligence services know as much about what is going on as he does.) Here let me just make a few comments on information gleaned from his latest posts.
First, he reports the killing of the acting Governor of Basra. His informants tell him that this is particularly important since the government of Basra has generally been supported by the people. In fact, the relatively free movement within Basra is one reason why it was so easy to pull off an assassination like this. It appears that some elements of the insurgency are uninterested in the character of the individuals killed. They only want to prove their power and sow havoc.
Second, he reports on a variety of fights within the Iraqi community, both among those who otherwise support the government and those who do not. In the Kirkuk region, the Kurds and Arabs are engaged in a particularly vicious sub-rosa struggle that involves the capturing of the children of one another's leaders. In Mosul, one of the Turkoman leaders was recently killed. The Turkoman community feels they are not being given sufficient attention and perhaps the Kurds or Arabs are fighting back. Turkey nearby is thought to be a supporter of their interests, something that may come up later. Within Baghdad and the Triangle there is continued struggle among Shi'a and Sunni, but also within both of these camps. Recently a leading Sunni divine was killed, probably by Baath or Salafist (extreme Sunnis) parties. Within the Shi'a world the standoff continues between al-Sadr and the rest, with al-Sadr apparently gaining some allies while he loses out on other fronts.
Again, I would emphasize that the insurgency seems doomed as long as it is merely destructive, sowing division and terror. They continue to operate without offering a plan to the people. Indeed, they could not have a plan when the extremist Sunni Islamists want a Sunni Shari'a-ruled state and the revolutionary Shi'a of the Mahdi Army want the same, only Shi'a, not Sunni. The nationalists, who may in fact have the most money and expertise, regardless of their numbers, simply want a modern, nationalist Iraq with themselves in charge.
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