Thursday, July 08, 2004
Holding Our Breath
Since the turnover of power, there has been an only relative, yet still remarkable, lull. Not as many Iraqis or Coalition forces seem to be attacked. There was a skirmish yesterday in Baghdad involving both Iraqi and American defense forces. Yet in spite of a great deal of shooting, the casualty count remained low.
On the terrorism in Iraq front, two possibly important signs. First, the group holding the Marine seems to have released rather than decapitated him. Second, the papers yesterday reported that a new underground movement calling itself the "Salvation Front" warned Zarqawi that they would kill him unless he left the country. If there is such a group and this is not simply misinformation, this implies a breakup of the insurgency.
Another hint of change along the same line comes from Falluja. On the one hand, today's paper reports that it has become a center for organizing the resistance. Our decision to "leave it to the Iraqis" seems to have failed in this instance (however as an example of unintended consequences, it was this very decision that seemed to be copied elsewhere, such as against the Sadrists, with success). On the other hand, there are also reports that the "Falluja Brigade" (made up of Baathists and locals) may be becoming increasingly hostile to the foreigners who are using the city as a base. This would fit in with the "Salvation Front" report.
Meanwhile, as we begin to congratulate ourselves, Falluja and its environs, and perhaps some other hot spots such as Samarra, remain outside our control or that of the interim government. It does not have the requisite firepower to take Falluja yet and if we did it, it would kill too many. This is a conundrum that will have to be solved. Quarantining such places sounds fine, let them "stew in their own juices", except that it is said that bombs and missions are developed and directed from these centers.
Since the turnover of power, there has been an only relative, yet still remarkable, lull. Not as many Iraqis or Coalition forces seem to be attacked. There was a skirmish yesterday in Baghdad involving both Iraqi and American defense forces. Yet in spite of a great deal of shooting, the casualty count remained low.
On the terrorism in Iraq front, two possibly important signs. First, the group holding the Marine seems to have released rather than decapitated him. Second, the papers yesterday reported that a new underground movement calling itself the "Salvation Front" warned Zarqawi that they would kill him unless he left the country. If there is such a group and this is not simply misinformation, this implies a breakup of the insurgency.
Another hint of change along the same line comes from Falluja. On the one hand, today's paper reports that it has become a center for organizing the resistance. Our decision to "leave it to the Iraqis" seems to have failed in this instance (however as an example of unintended consequences, it was this very decision that seemed to be copied elsewhere, such as against the Sadrists, with success). On the other hand, there are also reports that the "Falluja Brigade" (made up of Baathists and locals) may be becoming increasingly hostile to the foreigners who are using the city as a base. This would fit in with the "Salvation Front" report.
Meanwhile, as we begin to congratulate ourselves, Falluja and its environs, and perhaps some other hot spots such as Samarra, remain outside our control or that of the interim government. It does not have the requisite firepower to take Falluja yet and if we did it, it would kill too many. This is a conundrum that will have to be solved. Quarantining such places sounds fine, let them "stew in their own juices", except that it is said that bombs and missions are developed and directed from these centers.
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