Saturday, July 31, 2004
Continued Danger, Progress, and Confusion
The United Nations in the end got its way: the National Conference has been postponed so that more groups can be enticed into taking part. I was rather partial to the Iraqi argument that it was best to keep to a schedule, but the UN seems to have more on its side than I thought. It is also true that the more the Interim Government cooperates with the UN, the less it seems to be a tool of the United States. In theory anything that internationalizes the effort should help the image problems of both the United States and the new government.
The kidnapping campaign threatens to have a damaging psychological result, in that several countries are starting to withdraw or talk of withdrawing their small contingents. It is hard for their governments to resist, since back home the clamor of the "It's not our war" crowd is greatly intensified with each kidnapping. The effect on transportation into the country by the kidnapping of truck drivers may be more materially threatening to the new government. I have seen no estimate of how many foreign drivers there are. However, since so many Iraqis are out of work, and there seem to be long lines of those willing to join its even more dangerous security services, it should be possible to rapidly replace foreign drivers with Iraqi drivers. If training is necessary that should not take so long either. In any event, we have again to give credit to the insurgents for finding useful strategies to cause trouble if nothing else.
At the same time as some foreigners on the government side are leaving, there is talk of others coming in. The Saudis have the most talked about proposal now, but Jordanians, Bahrainis, Egyptians Pakistanis and others have also been discussed as possible sources of military forces. The Prime Minister said a little while back that he would be glad to have Muslims, but not from neighboring countries. (He said he feared "interference", which he no doubt does fear from Syria, run by another Baath party, and Iran with its special take on democracy.) Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia is also a neighboring country. Interesting to see how this all plays out. This internationalization of the effort could set the stage for an American withdrawal without loss of face, IF the foreign forces are adequately trained and motivated. There is also now an agreement to send a few NATO officers and men to conduct training in the near future. This should be all to the good.
The United Nations in the end got its way: the National Conference has been postponed so that more groups can be enticed into taking part. I was rather partial to the Iraqi argument that it was best to keep to a schedule, but the UN seems to have more on its side than I thought. It is also true that the more the Interim Government cooperates with the UN, the less it seems to be a tool of the United States. In theory anything that internationalizes the effort should help the image problems of both the United States and the new government.
The kidnapping campaign threatens to have a damaging psychological result, in that several countries are starting to withdraw or talk of withdrawing their small contingents. It is hard for their governments to resist, since back home the clamor of the "It's not our war" crowd is greatly intensified with each kidnapping. The effect on transportation into the country by the kidnapping of truck drivers may be more materially threatening to the new government. I have seen no estimate of how many foreign drivers there are. However, since so many Iraqis are out of work, and there seem to be long lines of those willing to join its even more dangerous security services, it should be possible to rapidly replace foreign drivers with Iraqi drivers. If training is necessary that should not take so long either. In any event, we have again to give credit to the insurgents for finding useful strategies to cause trouble if nothing else.
At the same time as some foreigners on the government side are leaving, there is talk of others coming in. The Saudis have the most talked about proposal now, but Jordanians, Bahrainis, Egyptians Pakistanis and others have also been discussed as possible sources of military forces. The Prime Minister said a little while back that he would be glad to have Muslims, but not from neighboring countries. (He said he feared "interference", which he no doubt does fear from Syria, run by another Baath party, and Iran with its special take on democracy.) Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia is also a neighboring country. Interesting to see how this all plays out. This internationalization of the effort could set the stage for an American withdrawal without loss of face, IF the foreign forces are adequately trained and motivated. There is also now an agreement to send a few NATO officers and men to conduct training in the near future. This should be all to the good.
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