Saturday, June 12, 2004
A Realignment of Forces and Growing Coalition Passivity
Today's paper suggests that the focus of opposition to the Coalition forces/Interim Government may be shifting more decisively to the old Sunni/Baathist/nationalists of the Sunni triangle and away from the Shiites. In Kufa, a sermon by a prominent Sadrist announces that Moktada now supports the interim government as long as it moves in the direction of freeing the country of the Americans. Many areas in the South now seem calmer, except in Najaf where the suspicion is that Mahdi militia elements may not be under Moktada's control. In Najaf also, there have been pitched battles between this militia and supporters of another Shiite grouping. In Baghdad, sporadic fighting continues between American forces and the Mahdi army; the U.S. seems not to feel it should cede any part of the city to the Sadrists.
Meanwhile in several Sunni mosques in Baghdad, the preachers are now openly asking the officers and experts of the old Iraq army to come back into the battle on the side of the resistance. Their message: "The absence of combat experts from the battlefield is treason . . . against God, the prophet, and the nation the experts belong to".
This suggests that what may emerge is a pattern in which Sunnis and Baathists, all those who benefited from Saddam's favoring of the Sunni Arabs, violently resisting the development of a new political system in which they will be a distinct minority, the Kurds (also Sunnis, but not in this political sense) opting out of the new system for the same reason, and the Shi'as gradually and grudgingly reaching a wait and see accommodation. This hasn't jelled yet, but it may.
Meanwhile, the American forces appear to be on hold. Many relax in glorious facilities built around the extravagant structures of Saddam. We already knew of the cloistered green zone with its palaces and other modern buildings in the center of Baghdad, and of the revitalized prison camps on the outskirts. Today's paper describes a huge American encampment built around a desert pleasure palace renamed "Camp Victory". Here, air conditioning has reached the freezing level in some buildings, the latest technologies are used to enjoy unequalled communications and instant battlefield overview, or to offer soldiers views of high school graduations. Outside of such facilities the troops are less active. Police are being driven from their stations in much of the country. Ten miles south of the city the police were driven from their station. They called the Americans for help, but it was said to take five hours for them to arrive. (We are sure there are thousands of coalition soldiers living through a hell everyday, risking their lives whenever they get out on the road. Yet relatively, it appears that the occupation forces are much more passive that in the recent past. We can only hope that they do not take too far and too quickly the reasonable idea that responsibility for security should be shifted to the Iraqis.)
Today's paper suggests that the focus of opposition to the Coalition forces/Interim Government may be shifting more decisively to the old Sunni/Baathist/nationalists of the Sunni triangle and away from the Shiites. In Kufa, a sermon by a prominent Sadrist announces that Moktada now supports the interim government as long as it moves in the direction of freeing the country of the Americans. Many areas in the South now seem calmer, except in Najaf where the suspicion is that Mahdi militia elements may not be under Moktada's control. In Najaf also, there have been pitched battles between this militia and supporters of another Shiite grouping. In Baghdad, sporadic fighting continues between American forces and the Mahdi army; the U.S. seems not to feel it should cede any part of the city to the Sadrists.
Meanwhile in several Sunni mosques in Baghdad, the preachers are now openly asking the officers and experts of the old Iraq army to come back into the battle on the side of the resistance. Their message: "The absence of combat experts from the battlefield is treason . . . against God, the prophet, and the nation the experts belong to".
This suggests that what may emerge is a pattern in which Sunnis and Baathists, all those who benefited from Saddam's favoring of the Sunni Arabs, violently resisting the development of a new political system in which they will be a distinct minority, the Kurds (also Sunnis, but not in this political sense) opting out of the new system for the same reason, and the Shi'as gradually and grudgingly reaching a wait and see accommodation. This hasn't jelled yet, but it may.
Meanwhile, the American forces appear to be on hold. Many relax in glorious facilities built around the extravagant structures of Saddam. We already knew of the cloistered green zone with its palaces and other modern buildings in the center of Baghdad, and of the revitalized prison camps on the outskirts. Today's paper describes a huge American encampment built around a desert pleasure palace renamed "Camp Victory". Here, air conditioning has reached the freezing level in some buildings, the latest technologies are used to enjoy unequalled communications and instant battlefield overview, or to offer soldiers views of high school graduations. Outside of such facilities the troops are less active. Police are being driven from their stations in much of the country. Ten miles south of the city the police were driven from their station. They called the Americans for help, but it was said to take five hours for them to arrive. (We are sure there are thousands of coalition soldiers living through a hell everyday, risking their lives whenever they get out on the road. Yet relatively, it appears that the occupation forces are much more passive that in the recent past. We can only hope that they do not take too far and too quickly the reasonable idea that responsibility for security should be shifted to the Iraqis.)
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