Monday, June 14, 2004
Further Shift toward a Sunni-Baathist Dominated Resistance
The latest news reinforces the idea that the struggle in Iraq could resolve into a struggle of the extreme nationalists headquartered in the "Sunni triangle" against the occupation forces and the Interim Government. On the one hand, continuing attacks, against foreigners and Iraqis, seem to be once again primarily in this area. Two leading officials of the new Interim government have already been assassinated in the last two days and attempts have been made against others. On the other hand, in spite of continued violence by the Sadrists, particularly in Sadr City, it was announced yesterday that Moktada al-Sadr may establish a political party to contest the upcoming election. This acceptance of the emerging system by even the most extreme Shi'a leader fits the logic of the situation, as was suggested yesterday.
If this scenario plays out as I think it might, it will have two consequences. First, the best armed and organized resistance movement will continue as the leader of the opposition. Its top officers are generals high on our playing card list who were never apprehended. They are making a very creditable effort to maintain a high level of fear, thereby severely reducing cooperation with the new government. Officials at all levels from ordinary policemen to cabinet members who are Sunni or who live in the triangle may become increasing unable or unwilling to serve the interim administration. The Sunni resistance is also holding back the development of adequate oil production and electrical supplies, both of which are critical to the success of the new government. Second, and equally important, this concentration of the resistance on the old Saddam forces will greatly reduce the base on which the resistance can be sustained. It will further raise the confidence of the Shi'a majority that the future will be theirs rather than a replay of the past in which the Sunnis dominated.
It should be remembered, however, that numbers are not everything. Many resistance movements have managed to be quite successful and even take power with no more than the support of fifteen percent of the population. For example, with about 15% of the population, the Tutsi ethnic group (or so-labeled population) have managed to play a decisive role in both Rwanda and Burundi. In particular, after the genocide in Rwanda in which nearly one million Tutsi were killed, the Tutsis managed to regroup and return to take over the country in the 1990s. Not coincidentally, they were the group that had traditionally ruled the country.
The latest news reinforces the idea that the struggle in Iraq could resolve into a struggle of the extreme nationalists headquartered in the "Sunni triangle" against the occupation forces and the Interim Government. On the one hand, continuing attacks, against foreigners and Iraqis, seem to be once again primarily in this area. Two leading officials of the new Interim government have already been assassinated in the last two days and attempts have been made against others. On the other hand, in spite of continued violence by the Sadrists, particularly in Sadr City, it was announced yesterday that Moktada al-Sadr may establish a political party to contest the upcoming election. This acceptance of the emerging system by even the most extreme Shi'a leader fits the logic of the situation, as was suggested yesterday.
If this scenario plays out as I think it might, it will have two consequences. First, the best armed and organized resistance movement will continue as the leader of the opposition. Its top officers are generals high on our playing card list who were never apprehended. They are making a very creditable effort to maintain a high level of fear, thereby severely reducing cooperation with the new government. Officials at all levels from ordinary policemen to cabinet members who are Sunni or who live in the triangle may become increasing unable or unwilling to serve the interim administration. The Sunni resistance is also holding back the development of adequate oil production and electrical supplies, both of which are critical to the success of the new government. Second, and equally important, this concentration of the resistance on the old Saddam forces will greatly reduce the base on which the resistance can be sustained. It will further raise the confidence of the Shi'a majority that the future will be theirs rather than a replay of the past in which the Sunnis dominated.
It should be remembered, however, that numbers are not everything. Many resistance movements have managed to be quite successful and even take power with no more than the support of fifteen percent of the population. For example, with about 15% of the population, the Tutsi ethnic group (or so-labeled population) have managed to play a decisive role in both Rwanda and Burundi. In particular, after the genocide in Rwanda in which nearly one million Tutsi were killed, the Tutsis managed to regroup and return to take over the country in the 1990s. Not coincidentally, they were the group that had traditionally ruled the country.
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