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Monday, May 17, 2004

The War Goes On

Today's paper "cuts the war down to size." The violent events of the previous 24 hours are essentially listed in a small article on page A-11. In condensed form, violence included: three Iraqi women killed because they worked for Americans. Two Iraqi fighters killed and 20 wounded in a fight on a bridge. Six Italian soldiers were wounded in a gun battle in Nasiriyah. Civilian staffers were then evacuated. In Basra, an Iraqi mortar attack killed four Iraqi civilians. An American soldier was killed when a bomb exploded by his vehicle. Later in the day came news that the head of the Iraqi Governing Council had been killed by a suicide attack in Baghdad.

And then there was the alarming but still vague report that the Americans had bombed Karbala. The fighting had already been within a block of its most sacred shi'a shrine. Whether the supposed bombing was actually an escalation on our side is not clear. Muslim clerics were said to have come from Falluja to show their support for Muqtada al-Sadr's militia. A caravan of supplies for Sadrists also arrived at Kufa to show support for the Sadrists. The Sadrists have driven a significant Italian garrison out of Nasiriyah. (Opinion in Italy is turning sharply against the war because of the prison scandals and their losses in Iraq.) Sadrist strength seems to be growing in Najaf, Karbala and several other cities. Meanwhile, the more conservative clergy has taken the highly unusual step of closing the shrines to tourists in view of the situation.

There is increasing confusion about the handing over of power at the end of June, yet it is my impression that many Iraqis are looking forward to it, no matter how unclear its meaning might be. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq has urged American forces to remain until order is restored. This shi'a group opposes the Sadrists, but how much power it now has is unclear. Incidentally the late leader of the Governing Council was also a leader of the Dawa party, the oldest and at one time most influential anti-Saddam shi'a political party.

More information comes out on the way in which the Administration reacted to 9/11 by casting doubt on the continued applicability of the Geneva conventions "in some situations". This attitude may well have perculated throughout the system as Seymour Hersh is saying in his damning article in the New Yorker. We will see how many smoking guns will be discovered. From another perspective, reports on National Public Radio and in the New York Times suggest that the morale of our soldiers is so low and the confusion of the troops on the ground is so great as to what they are doing and how they are to react to Iraqis that many soldiers say they can well understand the abuse by guards of prisoners in the absence of clear and continuous monitoring of the guards' behavior by higher officers.

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