Monday, May 24, 2004
Completing A Scaled-Down Mission?
Without wanting to seem pollyannish, it would appear as though we may be doing somewhat better in Iraq, better enough to make possible an eventual "withdrawal with honor", assuming Iraq holds together enough during the transition period that our departure does not look like we are being chased out. There are still violent incidents every day. But the momentum of anti-American attacks appears to have been lost since April. (Let not tomorrow prove me wrong!)
Two other indications look good. First, we seem to have withdrawn successfully from Karbala without destroying the important shrines. We are now using Iraqis to do at least part of the security, and shops are reopening. We also seem to have been able to go a long way toward retaking Kufa, the main base of the Sadrists outside of the Sadr City area of Baghdad. In both cases we have been able to inflict very one-sided casualties on the Sadrists, and they may be discouraged. This backs up the general rule that guerrillas make a mistake when they engage in pitched battles with an occupying power. Pitched battles partly worked for a different sort of guerrilla in Falluja. But it appears as though the people in Karbala were really glad to see their guerrillas go, and this may have made the difference.
Second, NYT reporters and others sense that the general feeling of Iraqis today is one of sullen acceptance of the American presence. They want the Americans to go, but they fear chaos in the aftermath. The result may be a growing unwillingness to push harder on the Americans. It is significant that the main complaint against the Americans in most of the country seems to be that the Americans have failed to guarantee security and have failed in their promises of development. Deep down the average Iraqi realizes that neither of these problems is likely to get better if the Americans leave now.
An eerie aspect of the situation is that while the Americans beat themselves up over the their egregious torture of detainees this does not seem to have had a great effect in Iraq itself. Partly this is because the Iraqis who really hate us expected no better of us, so are not disappointed. Those, on the other hand, who see the Americans as the only reed to cling to do not wish to damage their crutch further. Perhaps my impression results from misreporting, perhaps there is a new upwelling of hatred over the torture that will lead to a new cascade of attacks. Certainly our actions have had a negative effect is in the Arab Middle East and Europe, but we hear little of it in Iraq itself.
Without wanting to seem pollyannish, it would appear as though we may be doing somewhat better in Iraq, better enough to make possible an eventual "withdrawal with honor", assuming Iraq holds together enough during the transition period that our departure does not look like we are being chased out. There are still violent incidents every day. But the momentum of anti-American attacks appears to have been lost since April. (Let not tomorrow prove me wrong!)
Two other indications look good. First, we seem to have withdrawn successfully from Karbala without destroying the important shrines. We are now using Iraqis to do at least part of the security, and shops are reopening. We also seem to have been able to go a long way toward retaking Kufa, the main base of the Sadrists outside of the Sadr City area of Baghdad. In both cases we have been able to inflict very one-sided casualties on the Sadrists, and they may be discouraged. This backs up the general rule that guerrillas make a mistake when they engage in pitched battles with an occupying power. Pitched battles partly worked for a different sort of guerrilla in Falluja. But it appears as though the people in Karbala were really glad to see their guerrillas go, and this may have made the difference.
Second, NYT reporters and others sense that the general feeling of Iraqis today is one of sullen acceptance of the American presence. They want the Americans to go, but they fear chaos in the aftermath. The result may be a growing unwillingness to push harder on the Americans. It is significant that the main complaint against the Americans in most of the country seems to be that the Americans have failed to guarantee security and have failed in their promises of development. Deep down the average Iraqi realizes that neither of these problems is likely to get better if the Americans leave now.
An eerie aspect of the situation is that while the Americans beat themselves up over the their egregious torture of detainees this does not seem to have had a great effect in Iraq itself. Partly this is because the Iraqis who really hate us expected no better of us, so are not disappointed. Those, on the other hand, who see the Americans as the only reed to cling to do not wish to damage their crutch further. Perhaps my impression results from misreporting, perhaps there is a new upwelling of hatred over the torture that will lead to a new cascade of attacks. Certainly our actions have had a negative effect is in the Arab Middle East and Europe, but we hear little of it in Iraq itself.
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